When the most critical long-term moving average is broken, and the ETF has changed from the largest buyer to the largest seller, the market has given you a clear answer.
Today, I saw the analysis by Julio Moreno, the research director at CryptoQuant, and I am not surprised at all. Bitcoin has broken below the 365-day moving average, which is the key dividing line that has historically distinguished bull markets from bear markets. More importantly, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has changed from net buying to net selling in the fourth quarter of 2025, reducing its holdings by approximately 24,000 Bitcoins.
These data are not opinions; they are facts. I want to tell all retail investors: this is not the time to discuss whether we will enter a bear market, but rather that we are already in a bear market.
Julio Moreno has made it very clear: since 2023, Bitcoin has gone through three major waves of demand. This demand supported the previous rise. However, since early October 2025, demand growth has fallen below long-term trend levels.
What does this mean? It means that the majority of new demand has already been absorbed by the market. The forces that previously pushed up prices are now disappearing.
The most direct evidence is the ETF data. In the fourth quarter of 2024, ETFs were still strong buyers, continuously absorbing Bitcoins in the market. But by the fourth quarter of 2025, the situation completely reversed. A net sell-off of 24,000 Bitcoins is not a small number. This indicates that the largest institutional funds are withdrawing.
I know many retail investors are still expecting a rebound and even think this is a bottom-fishing opportunity. But I must tell you directly: buying the dip now is likely to mean you're buying halfway up the mountain.
Historical data does not lie. Julio Moreno points out that the number of addresses holding 100-1000 Bitcoins has also grown below trend levels. This situation is highly similar to the demand deterioration at the end of 2021 and before the arrival of the bear market in 2022.
Simply put: institutions and large holders are reducing their Bitcoin holdings. These individuals have more information and more professional analysis teams than ordinary retail investors. If they are all selling, what do you think they have seen?
The price of Bitcoin has now fallen below the 365-day moving average. In technical analysis, this is the most critical long-term support line. Once it breaks, it means the long-term trend has turned bearish.
My opinion is very straightforward: Bitcoin has entered a bear market, and this phase may last for quite some time.
This is not pessimistic; it is an objective judgment based on data. When demand continues to weaken, when the largest buyers become sellers, and when key support levels are broken, the market direction becomes very clear.
You may be wondering where the bottom is. To be honest, no one knows the exact bottom. But we can use some indicators to judge when the market starts to form a bottom:
First, ETF funds need to turn back into net inflows. Only when the largest institutional funds start buying again does it indicate that they believe the price has become attractive.
Second, the number of addresses holding Bitcoin needs to resume growth. This indicates that new investors are starting to enter the market.
Third, the price needs to stabilize above key moving averages again. This is the confirmation signal from a technical perspective.
Before these signals appear, any rise should be viewed as a rebound, not a trend reversal.
I know many people are suffering right now, especially those who bought at high prices. But emotions won't solve problems; actions will. Here are a few direct suggestions for you:
First, if you are heavily leveraged and stuck, do not add to your position to average down your costs. In a downtrend, adding to your position will only increase your losses. Use any rebound to reduce your position and lower your average cost.
Second, if you are lightly leveraged or short, hold on to your cash. Cash is currently the best asset. Don't rush in because you're afraid of missing out. There are always buying opportunities in a bear market; what is lacking is cash.
Third, stay away from leveraged contracts. In a market with unclear trends, leverage is a tool for self-destruction. A single reverse fluctuation can lead to your liquidation.
Fourth, reduce your trading frequency. In a bear market, the more you trade, the more you lose. Watch more and act less, waiting for clear trend signals.
Most importantly, acknowledge reality. Acknowledge that the market has turned bearish and that your previous judgments may have been wrong. In financial markets, admitting mistakes is not shameful; it is an essential survival skill.
The importance of Julio Moreno's analysis is not because he concluded that we are in a bear market, but because he used data to prove why it is a bear market. ETF fund flows, address growth data, and key moving average positions—these are the hard indicators for judging the market.
I won’t easily say that the bottom has been reached. I am closely monitoring several key pieces of data: net inflows and outflows of ETFs, changes in Bitcoin inventory on exchanges, and changes in the behavior of long-term holders. Only when these data show clear improvement will I consider re-entering the market in large amounts.
Before that, protecting your principal is the top priority. Remember, those who survive in a bear market can profit in a bull market. Now is not the time to see who makes more money; it is time to see who can last longer.
If you really want to trade, my advice is: wait. Wait for the market to give clearer signals, wait for panic emotions to be fully released, and wait for those most steadfast holders to stop selling. When the worst news comes out but the market no longer declines, that will be the real bottom signal.
As for what signals I am specifically waiting for now and my position management strategy, I won’t elaborate here. If you want to know, scan the QR code below to find Sister Xu in the chat room!
