Bitcoin is about to remain below 80,000 USD for a long time.
On-chain data shows that there are 6 million tokens above 80,000 USD, worth approximately 600 billion USD.
Given the current global funding sentiment, it is impossible to have billions of USD-level funds to take over, and there needs to be a monthly inflow of several billion USD to reach new highs.
Moreover, 70/80,000 is a blank area for token distribution, but 75,000 is the low point for mid-year consolidation and the starting point for the second market trend. Theoretically, this should be a dense area for tokens.
This indicates that since the second main wave of the year to now, late-arriving funds have taken over several million tokens.
Thus, the weekly chart has already shown a divergence for half a year, resulting in eight consecutive weekly declines.
It is evident that this is a behavior of strong large funds and long-term dormant tokens, showing a consistent selling action over the long term.
Therefore, it is clear that they have found a buyer and cannot immediately liberate.
There is a need for consolidation and to buy back tokens. How to consolidate? The token distribution is around 90,000 USD; a drop to 60,000 would only be about a 40% decline, which seems a bit trivial for people in the crypto circle.
So it can only be that it drops below 50,000, at least with an average decline of 50%, before a long-term sideways fluctuation makes sense.
The probability of the previous script has increased: $BTC
