Bitcoin is under pressure — but the picture isn’t all grim. On-chain data shows the market is experiencing its most intense selling spell in roughly three years, yet other metrics hint at growing holder conviction that could set the stage for consolidation rather than an extended crash. What the data shows - Alphractal founder Joao Wedson flagged a sharp drop in the buy/sell pressure delta on X, a sign that market sell orders have recently overwhelmed market buy orders. Because market orders — not limit orders — are what drive price moves, the delta’s decline underlines aggressive, price-moving selling. - Wedson tempered the alarm: such intense selling typically can’t last forever. While it doesn’t necessarily mark the exact bottom, this kind of capitulation often precedes a market bottom and is frequently followed by a consolidation phase. A counterpoint: holders are sticking around - At the same time, the holder retention rate has been climbing in recent months. This metric measures the share of addresses that keep a Bitcoin balance for 30 consecutive days — effectively showing whether holders are staying put or rapidly exiting. - The uptick in retention suggests rising confidence among long-term holders, even as some participants fear the bull run may have peaked. Caution from traders: the regime is still risky - Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. warns that broader buy/sell index readings (1-day, 7-day, 30-day) keep the market in a risky posture for buyers. After Bitcoin’s dip to about $84.4k last week, the 1-day index sat at 43, while the 7D and 30D readings displayed signs of overheating. - Adler notes that current market structure tends to punish long exposure during rallies, as longs are frequently unwound — making sustained rallies difficult. His practical takeaway: traders should consider “selling the bounce” and locking in profits rather than chasing rallies. Bottom line Intense selling pressure is real and notable, but it may be short-lived and could presage a consolidation that stabilizes price. Meanwhile, rising holder retention points to stronger long-term commitment from some participants. Still, short-term dynamics and buy/sell index signals warrant caution — particularly for traders looking to add risk on rallies. Disclaimer: This article is informational only and not investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries significant risk; do your own research before making any financial decisions. © 2025 AMBCrypto Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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