The crypto market before the Christmas holiday is really exhausting! BTC plunged right after the U.S. stock market opened last night, hitting a low of $86578. The flame of the bulls was extinguished again, and now it has shrunk back to the previous fluctuation range, reported at $87658. This market can be summarized as 'waiting for direction'. Once Christmas arrives, it is highly likely to remain flat in the range for a longer time.
First, let's look at the macro background: there is absolutely no hope for the Fed to cut rates! CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of maintaining a 3.5%-3.75% interest rate in January has soared to 85.6%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 14.4%.
Powell said that the current interest rate position is just right, and Harmak is more direct, worried that inflation will stick around, saying that interest rates should be maintained at least until next spring. The overall environment is set to 'wait and see', and BTC naturally won't create big waves.
📊 Quick check of BTC key price levels: Don't operate blindly, keep an eye on these three zones!
🟥 Life-saving support zone: If it drops below $89000, it will be dangerous, and it is highly likely to look for support at $84000-$86000; if it breaks, the pressure from the bears will be even stronger.
🟨 Frustrating oscillation zone: It's currently swaying mainly between $89000-$93000, K lines are being pulled back and forth but without volume, both bulls and bears are testing each other, and no one dares to make the first move.
🟩 Reversal pressure zone: It must steadily stay above $93000 for bullish sentiment to awaken, only then can we look at $95000-$97000.
My view is very clear: now is the 'rhythm testing + structure confirmation period'; trends have not been established, and volume hasn't kept up, everyone is waiting and watching. At this time, rhythm is more important than direction; wait for confirmation of the breakthrough before entering the market to increase the win rate!
Short-term players: Lightly engage at the lower range of the interval, set stop-losses properly, and pay attention to changes in trading volume.
Medium-term / swing players: Either wait for trading volume to confirm the breakout, or wait for a retest of key support to stabilize before planning your positions; don't rush to catch the bottom.
📉 Is ETH cooling off? The 4H chart has broken down; it needs to find support at $2750!
ETH is really not performing well this time; the 4-hour chart has directly broken below $2950, and the rebound is still blocked, obviously heading downward. Next, it is likely to extend to the daily level, testing support at $2750 again.
After dropping to $2750, there are two possible trends: either it bounces back and continues to oscillate in the $2750-$3400 range, or it breaks down directly and looks for the next support. Don't blindly try to catch the bottom before it stabilizes, or you might get trapped.
🚨 Altcoin warning: 95% of new coins hit their peak upon listing, and half are scams!
Recently, people keep saying 'altcoins are easier to trade than the market', and while you can make quick entries and exits, the risks are also absurdly high! I have compiled the shocking statistics of altcoins in Binance's secondary market:
There are 330 coins with a drop of over 80%, and 382 coins with a drop of over 50%;
Since the beginning of 2024, 95% of new listed coins have peaked right after listing and then dropped all the way down.
So losing money in altcoins these two years isn't because you're not skilled; the market itself has leaned towards scams! Let me summarize the current situation of several popular altcoins for you, don't just follow the trend blindly:
$SRC: The SOL bull market has boosted it, directly skyrocketing 50 times; the screaming chicken videos on TikTok are indeed brainwashing, but no matter how popular, be sure to manage your risks and don't chase the highs.
$LIGHT: After a few days of rise, it faced a big bearish candle; now no one dares to touch the rising altcoins, and even if one makes a lucky profit, it can easily get carried away, ultimately losing both principal and profit.
$PIPPIN: Yesterday's short position made a profit, this coin's washout is getting fiercer, and it might come down with a big bearish candle of 40%+, although it has risen several times from the bottom, most of the coins on the contract leaderboard are one-wave flows; once they drop to the bottom, it's over, this one is relatively stable.
$PEPE: It has already been extremely oversold, and the price is about to touch the support level from the last sharp drop. The risk of positioning in this oversold region is low, and it is expected to welcome a 1-3 times rebound; it can be monitored.
$SOL: Support is still around $120, the most annoying move would be to drop to $115 and then quickly pull back, so positions absolutely cannot be large! $126 is the dividing line for bulls and bears; only above this level is there good upward momentum.
🌟 The only clear stream? USD1 annualized 20%, funds are going crazy for it!
Among a bunch of meme coins, USD1 is considered a clear stream! Usually, the daily trading volume of USDT against USD1 is only over 10 million, today it surged directly to 260 million, and the K line even has a premium. The key is that the returns are enticing, starting investment at 50,000 U, annualized 20%, with an average monthly cost of about $800, which is already considered a very attractive stable choice in the current market environment, but the quota is limited, so act fast.
One last piece of advice: the market before Christmas is likely to be challenging, mainstream coins are waiting for confirmation, and don't heavily invest in altcoins. Opportunities like USD1, which are stable, can be watched as needed. The premise for making money is to protect your principal; don't rush in just because others are making money, or you'll end up stuck during Christmas!
