Brothers, wake up! Don't be fed by those 'analysts' drawing up false hopes.
Has anyone noticed that the finish line of market narratives is being quietly moved? From the 'frenzied bull market' at the end of 2025 to the current belief that '2026 is the real super cycle.' As a veteran in crypto, I smell something extremely dangerous.
🚨 1. The four-year cycle law is dead; who is the culprit?
In the past, we firmly believed in the cycles of halving, big surges, and bear markets. But the situation in 2025 is oddly unsettling: $BTC reached a new high before the halving, and the anticipated surge in Q4 has turned into a fluctuating decline.
The truth is: The players have changed. 2021 was retail investors rushing into meme coins with subsidy checks; 2025 is Larry Fink (CEO of BlackRock) facing quarterly reports. Institutions don't care about your halving cycle; they only pay attention to liquidity and chip distribution.
📉 2. 'Super cycle': Is it analysis or marketing?
BlackRock, Bitwise, Grayscale, and other giants are all pushing for the '2026 super cycle.' But remember one thing: they make a living off 'management fees.'
If retail investors feel the bull market is over and cut losses to leave the market, the assets under management (AUM) of these institutions will shrink, and fees will evaporate. Therefore, they have 100 reasons to tell you 'the big move is coming,' with only one purpose: to keep you in the casino and hand over your chips.
⚠️ 3. Don't use your mortgage to test the patience of institutions.
Fidelity's macro experts have already issued a warning: BTC may pull back to $65,000.
Institutions: Will it drop to 65,000 or even lower? No problem, they can wait three years.
Retail investors: With 5x leverage or even fully loaded on spot, can you withstand a 30% volatility?
Institutions are playing 'long-term fishing,' while most retail investors are playing 'picking up nuts in the fire.'
💡 My personal advice (pitfall guide):
Reject blind faith in narratives: Anyone telling you '2026 must rise' either wants to earn your fees or wants you to take over.
Focus on liquidity (M2): Only when there is really more money will the market truly start. Currently, it is just institutions adjusting their positions.
Gradual layout, no leverage: In an institution-led market, volatility is used to clean up high leverage.
Finally, I want to ask everyone a heart-wrenching question: Do you think the super cycle really starts in 2026, or is it just a last lie made up by institutions to distribute chips?
Leave your thoughts in the comments, and let's analyze the tricks of the institutions together! 👇
