Market dynamics are rapidly changing, and a whale's prophecy is quietly altering capital flows.
A self-proclaimed 'BTC OG insider whale' agent, Garrett Jin, recently publicly stated that the surge in precious metals such as silver and palladium is primarily driven by short covering, which is unsustainable. He predicts that once precious metals pull back, funds will massively withdraw from the gold market and flow into Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This news quickly fermented in the crypto circle, sparking widespread discussion. As an analyst who has long focused on the cryptocurrency market, I believe there is indeed logic worth exploring behind this news, but retail investors need to think calmly before taking action.
01 Market situation, context and intentions behind whale statements
Who is Garrett Jin? This figure, characterized by legend and controversy, is the former CEO of BitForex Exchange, now self-identified as an agent of the 'BTC OG insider whale'.
He recently became the focus because after the market crash on December 19, the whale accounts he manages faced a floating loss of up to 78.3 million USD, nearing the edge of liquidation. It was at this critical moment that he publicly declared aggressive targets of 106,000 USD for Bitcoin and 4,500 USD for Ethereum.
The key is his timing of statements. At that time, the market had just undergone a bloodbath, with Bitcoin dropping below 85,000 USD and Ethereum falling below 2,800 USD, while the entire network's contracts faced liquidations totaling 549 million USD, affecting over 160,000 traders. In this atmosphere of panic, the whale's bullish declaration was undoubtedly like a bomb.
Historically, Garrett Jin has a record of accurate predictions. On-chain data shows that the whale address he represents executed a large-scale Bitcoin short trade one hour before Trump’s announcement of tariffs on China in October 2025, making a profit of 100 million USD. This kind of 'precise allocation' raises questions about whether he possesses insider information.
02 Capital flow, comparison of the markets for precious metals and cryptocurrencies
The performance of precious metals in 2025 is indeed dazzling. Gold has increased by about 70%, while silver has surged by about 140%, both reaching historical highs. This strong trend has structural support: expectations of loose monetary policy and geopolitical risks have prompted investors to turn to assets with value-preserving functions.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is showing weakness. Bitcoin has fallen about 6% in 2025, Ethereum has dropped about 12%, and the altcoin market has averaged a decline of about 42%. This stark contrast makes funds more inclined to flow into precious metals rather than cryptocurrencies.
However, the laws of market rotation always exist. Some analysts point out that the 'BTC/gold ratio is currently at an extremely rare bottom area; such signals usually appear during high volatility periods or after significant corrections in Bitcoin.' When both indicators hit bottom simultaneously, it often heralds the best BTC/gold allocation opportunity.
Crypto giants like Tether have begun to purchase large amounts of gold as stablecoin reserves, holding 116 tons of gold as of the end of September, worth approximately 14 billion USD at that time's prices. This figure has already exceeded the official gold reserves of many countries.
03 Whale perspective, in-depth analysis of the possibilities of capital rotation
Garrett Jin's bullish logic for cryptocurrencies is based on two points: First, the sustainability of the rise in precious metals is in doubt; second, the cryptocurrency market is currently in an oversold state.
His judgment on precious metals is: The recent surge in silver and palladium is mainly driven by short covering rather than an increase in actual demand. Once this technical rebound ends, precious metals may face a correction, and gold will also be dragged down. At that time, funds flowing out of precious metals will need to find new investment targets, and the cryptocurrency market will likely be the most probable destination.
Regarding the impact of the yen's interest rate hike on the market, Garrett Jin believes the market has already digested this negative news in advance. He emphasized: "The logic of shorting the yen no longer holds, and the yen's interest rate hike has little impact on the market; moreover, everyone has already anticipated this matter." In his view, the Federal Reserve's policies are the key factors driving global liquidity, and as long as the Fed does not turn hawkish, the liquidity environment will not fundamentally change.
From a market sentiment perspective, he believes that panic selling has cleared a large number of high-leverage positions, paving the way for a rebound. Key support levels are 80,000-85,000 USD for Bitcoin and 2,500-2,800 USD for Ethereum, which are also the cost zones for institutional investors; institutions are expected to step in to protect the market at these price ranges.
04 Retail strategy, rational allocation instead of blind following
Facing possible market rotations, retail investors should remain rational and avoid emotional trading. Here are a few practical suggestions:
Adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy: Do not attempt to invest all funds at once; instead, use a regular investment method to spread out risk and avoid buying at high points. When the market crashes, the same amount of money can buy more chips; when the market recovers, low-cost chips naturally enjoy appreciation benefits.
Control position sizes and avoid leverage: Do not invest all funds into high-risk assets, and especially do not use leverage to amplify risk. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are inherently volatile, and adding leverage significantly increases risk. Experienced traders suggest keeping leverage below 3 times to avoid emotional trading.
Focus on mainstream assets: In a high uncertainty environment, funds will concentrate on mainstream assets. The market situation in 2025 indicates that, apart from leading assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, the liquidity of small and medium market cap tokens will be depleted. Allocation should prioritize assets favored by institutions, such as BTC and ETH, which have strong anti-drawdown characteristics.
Learn to think in reverse: consider reducing positions when the market is extremely greedy, and think about allocation when the market is extremely fearful. Recently, whales have been increasing their holdings of BTC against the trend, with 85% of institutions still planning to increase their positions. This 'retail selling, large holders buying' pattern has historically been followed by a wave of corrective market.
The most pessimistic moments in the market often present the best opportunities for long-term investors. Currently, Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio is indeed attractive, especially against the backdrop that gold has entered an overheated phase. However, it is essential to invest with spare funds to avoid impacting daily life.
Future capital flows will depend on multiple factors: the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, regulatory progress in the cryptocurrency market, and the allocation strategies of institutional investors, among others. Some analysts believe that if the macroeconomic environment improves in 2026 and risk appetite rebounds, the cryptocurrency market may see a revival.
But no matter how the market changes, retail investors need to maintain a clear mind: the market is never short of opportunities; it is the capital that is lacking. Successful investment is not about following every shout of whales, but about establishing your own investment system and finding certainty amid uncertainty.
As an old investor once said: "The secret to making money in the crypto world is not 'getting rich quickly', but rather 'surviving until the next bull market'."
Do you think Garrett Jin's predictions will come true? Feel free to share your views and opinions in the comments!
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