2026 may usher in a capital feast
While retail investors lament Bitcoin's poor performance this year, smart money has quietly positioned itself.
“We have been buying.” This seemingly plain statement by David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at asset management firm VanEck, has stirred waves among professional investors. While most investors have been deterred by Bitcoin's relative weakness this year, this Wall Street giant has spotted opportunities that others have missed.
Bitcoin indeed performed poorly in 2025, dropping about 6% and underperforming the Nasdaq 100 index by about 50%. However, it is precisely this significant performance discrepancy that lays the groundwork for tomorrow's rebound.
01 The huge contrast between market sentiment and institutional behavior
When the cryptocurrency fear and greed index falls to an extreme fear level of 15, and social media is filled with the rhetoric that "Bitcoin has lost its upward potential," institutional investors are doing the opposite: quietly accumulating.
On-chain data shows that the holdings of whale addresses holding at least 1,000 Bitcoins are continuously increasing. It’s like a silent IPO, where early holders are methodically selling chips to the institutional buying power created by ETFs and corporate funds.
This differentiation reveals the essence of the market: retail investors focus on sentiment, while institutions focus on value. VanEck's Matthew Sigel points out that although prices have retraced, the leverage level in the crypto market has significantly decreased, and financing rates have returned to normal, which is usually a bullish signal.
02 Why might 2026 be the "perfect storm" for Bitcoin?
The positive factors for Bitcoin are converging, forming a potential "perfect storm."
The global tide of liquidity is about to return. Bitcoin continues to show a negative correlation with the dollar index (DXY), and as many countries continue to print money to cope with debt and political demands, this trend is accelerating.
The regulatory environment is becoming clearer. (Clear legislation) is expected to be passed by the end of 2025 or early 2026, clearing the final obstacles for institutional capital inflows. Large asset management firms and pension funds that have long claimed to be “waiting for regulatory clarity” will finally gain the permission to allocate assets.
The unique scarcity of Bitcoin. The annual inflation rate has dropped to 0.782% after Bitcoin's fourth halving, lower than the annual growth rate of gold. This absolute scarcity is particularly precious amid the continuous issuance of fiat currency.
03 The deeper the spring is compressed, the higher the rebound?
VanEck expects Bitcoin's four-year cycle to remain valid, but the performance will be more moderate. Historically, Bitcoin tends to see price peaks 12-18 months after halving, which means 2026 fits this time window.
Matthew Sigel analyzed key price levels: $78,000 (down 40% from peak) is an important support level, and if it drops further, $55,000 (200-week moving average) will be another area to watch. But currently, the extent of this round of correction is relatively limited.
More importantly, Bitcoin's volatility has halved, dropping from a past 80% retracement to about 40%. This suggests that the era of wild fluctuations may be ending, and Bitcoin is turning into a more stable asset favored by institutions.
04 How should ordinary investors respond?
In the current market, VanEck suggests adopting a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy, allocating 1-3% of assets to Bitcoin, increasing positions when leverage is cleared and reducing positions when the market is overheated.
Matthew Sigel shared his personal approach: "I usually choose to invest through dollar-cost averaging, such as investing a fixed amount at a certain price level, or doing it every two days." This strategy avoids the psychological pressure of trying to time the market perfectly and smooths market volatility through disciplined investing.
For investors seeking higher returns, opportunities in the industry consolidation of Bitcoin mining companies transitioning to AI/HPC (high-performance computing) can be focused on. VanEck's on-chain economy ETF (NODE) has achieved a yield of 28-30% since its launch, outperforming Bitcoin itself.
As the last batch of hesitant investors chooses to sell out of fear, and market sentiment drops to freezing point, the big players are quietly accumulating chips. This is not a simple speculation game but a repricing of scarce value by capital.
The future financial history may record: In 2025, when retail investors despair as Bitcoin underperforms the Nasdaq by 50%, smart money has already positioned itself for the next cycle. What they see is the inevitable encounter of accelerated currency devaluation and the return of liquidity.
The spring has indeed been compressed, and VanEck's actions suggest that the energy for a rebound may far exceed market expectations.
Follow me@崎哥说币 #比特币与黄金战争 #加密市场观察 #美联储回购协议计划 $BTC
