Reducing holdings in tech giants by over 2 billion USD, liquidating gold and emerging market exposure, and instead increasing positions in the US market and selected tech stocks.
Written by: DaiDai, MSX MaiDian
I. New Macroeconomic Paradigm: Investment Logic in an Era of Uncertainty
1. Introduction: Navigating an Unpredictable Future
The global macroeconomy is undergoing a profound structural transformation. Bob Prince, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates, points out that two core driving forces—accelerated 'modern mercantilism' and the 'artificial intelligence revolution'—are reshaping the market landscape. The interaction of these two paradigm shifts has given rise to a new environment filled with 'unpredictable tail events.' This context poses a severe challenge to traditional investment strategies and makes it imperative to strategically adjust portfolios to adapt to the future.
2. Core Driving Force Analysis
Based on Bob Prince's argument, the characteristics and impacts of the two major macro forces are as follows:
(1) The acceleration of modern mercantilism
The core characteristic of "modern mercantilism" lies in the increasingly important role that governments play in enhancing national wealth and power, prioritizing self-sufficiency and industrial policies. This trend has led to an increasingly complex global geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, with interactions between countries no longer limited to the economic sphere but encompassing more strategic considerations.
(2) The exponential demand of the artificial intelligence revolution
The development of artificial intelligence technology faces a core contradiction: marginal improvements in performance require an "exponential growth" in computing power and capital investment. This dynamic not only creates unprecedented demands on related industrial chains such as semiconductors, software, and energy, but also means that huge capital expenditures will become a key variable driving market growth and differentiation.
3. Bridgewater's response principles
Faced with this new macroeconomic paradigm fraught with uncertainty, Prince distilled Bridgewater's three core principles for coping, which form the cornerstone of its current investment decisions:
(1) Diversification
With market holdings, particularly in the US stock market, reaching historically high levels of concentration, diversification is the only reliable response to unpredictability. Its goal is to ensure that the portfolio will not be severely impacted by any unforeseen events that may occur in the future.
(2) Agility
As unknown macroeconomic factors gradually become clearer, investment strategies must be able to adapt and adjust quickly. Agility means proactively responding to emerging information and changing landscapes, rather than clinging to old judgments.
(3) A healthy degree of paranoia
In a market rife with uncertainty, it is crucial to remain vigilant and avoid overconfidence. This means maintaining a healthy skepticism toward prevailing market expectations, especially those that seem optimistic and linearly extrapolate.
Based on this assessment of the new macroeconomic paradigm, Bridgewater has made profound strategic adjustments to its investment portfolio in order to better manage future risks and opportunities.
II. Major Strategic Shift: A Detailed Explanation of the Strategic Turnaround in the Third Quarter of 2025
1. Introduction: Understanding Strategic Intent Through Data
Bridgewater's 13F filing for the third quarter of 2025 (ending September 30, 2025) revealed a decisive portfolio rotation. Data shows that Bridgewater is shifting from a defensive stance of the past few years to a more aggressive "return-seeking" approach.
2. Significant reduction and liquidation of holdings: mitigating concentration risk
According to data from Gainify, Moomoo, and Fintel, Bridgewater conducted a large-scale reduction and liquidation of its holdings in the third quarter in an effort to reduce portfolio concentration risk.
(1) Significantly reduce the number of "Big Seven" tech companies
Bridgewater significantly reduced its exposure to some tech giants, removing more than $2 billion in comprehensive positions, primarily targeting:
Nvidia (NVDA): Reduced holdings by 65.28%, or approximately 4.64 million shares, bringing the total holdings to approximately 2.47 million shares at the end of the period, with a market value of approximately $298 million. (Note: This is one of the largest single reductions in holdings this quarter, indicating concerns about short-term crowding in the chip sector.)
Microsoft (MSFT): Reduced holdings by 36.03%, or approximately 330,000 shares, bringing the total holdings to approximately 586,000 shares at the end of the period, with a market value of approximately $252 million.
Alphabet (GOOGL): Reduced holdings by 52.61%, or approximately 2.32 million shares, bringing the total holdings to approximately 2.09 million shares and the market value of the holdings to approximately $346 million.
Meta Platforms (META): Reduced holdings by 48.34%, or approximately 310,000 shares, bringing the total holdings to approximately 330,000 shares at the end of the period, with a market value of approximately US$189 million.
This move indicates that after tech giants experienced significant gains and valuation increases, Bridgewater chose to proactively reduce its concentration in crowded trades.
(2) Complete withdrawal from "gold" and "emerging markets"
The most notable move was Bridgewater's complete liquidation of its SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) position, marking its abandonment of traditional macro hedging tools. Simultaneously, the fund almost entirely exited emerging markets, with its iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) holdings decreasing by 93%. This series of actions sends a strong signal: capital is withdrawing from defensive and highly uncertain sectors and shifting towards markets with clearer fundamentals.
3. Core Increase and Position Building: Expanding the breadth of the US market and focusing on key technology value chains.
While significantly reducing its holdings, Bridgewater redeployed funds to the US market and specific technology sectors, demonstrating an optimistic assessment of its risk-reward ratio.
(1) Increase holdings of US large-cap stock index ETFs
Bridgewater has injected a significant amount of new capital into the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), resulting in a substantial increase in its weighting.
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV): Increased holdings by approximately 1.74 million shares (an increase of +75%), bringing the total holdings to 4.05 million shares at the end of the period, with a market value of approximately US$2.71 billion.
Note: IVV and SPY have become structural pillars of its portfolio, and this injection of over $1.1 billion reflects its renewed focus on the breadth of the U.S. market.
(2) Strategically deploying specific technology fields
Unlike its reduction of holdings in overvalued tech giants, Bridgewater has significantly increased or established new positions in a number of tech companies with clear long-term fundamentals and relatively reasonable valuations, primarily concentrated in software, payments, and the semiconductor supply chain.
Lam Research (LRCX): Increased holdings by approximately 1.83 million shares (an increase of +111%, doubling its holdings), bringing its total holdings to approximately 3.46 million shares at the end of the period, with a market value of approximately US$464 million.
Adobe (ADBE): Increased holdings by approximately 533,000 shares (an increase of +73%), bringing the total holdings at the end of the period to approximately 1.26 million shares, with a market value of approximately $445 million.
Workday (WDAY): Increased holdings by +132%, with holdings at the end of the period at approximately 1.04 million shares, valued at approximately US$251 million.
Mastercard (MA): Increased holdings by +190%, with holdings at the end of the period at approximately 366,000 shares, valued at approximately US$208 million.
This indicates that Bridgewater has not abandoned technology stocks, but rather is shifting its capital from consumer giants driven more by sentiment to semiconductor equipment and enterprise software companies that play the role of "shovel sellers" in the artificial intelligence revolution.
(3) Pay attention to newly listed companies
Bridgewater has also added new holdings in recently listed platform companies, demonstrating its continued exploration of new growth areas:
Reddit (RDDT): Established a new position, purchasing approximately 617,000 shares, with a holding value of approximately $142 million.
Robinhood (HOOD): Established a new position, purchasing approximately 808,000 shares, with a market value of approximately $98 million.
III. Unraveling the Mystery of Gold: A Game Between Long-Term Belief and Tactical Adjustments
1. Introduction: Behind seemingly contradictory decisions
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has long been a staunch supporter of gold. However, in the third quarter of 2025, Bridgewater completely liquidated its gold ETF holdings. This seemingly contradictory decision is not a denial of its long-standing belief, but more likely a tactical adjustment based on the current environment.
2. Dalio's Golden Philosophy
Based on information from TradingKey and Motley Fool, Dalio's gold investment philosophy is rooted in his understanding of macroeconomic cycles.
(1) Ultimate safe-haven assets
Dalio believes that gold is a key hedge against currency devaluation and declining institutional trust, and is the only asset that does not require any commitment from a counterparty.
(2) Strategic allocation recommendations
He once suggested at the Greenwich Economic Forum that during periods of heightened market pressure, the allocation to gold should be increased to 10%–15%, and bluntly stated that zero or low allocation to gold is a "strategic mistake."
3. Logical deduction of tactical withdrawal
Based on Gainify's analysis, Bridgewater's decision to liquidate its gold holdings can be understood through a shift in its risk appetite.
(1) Shift in risk appetite
Unwinding its gold exposure signifies Bridgewater's shift from defensive value stores to a more aggressive equity deployment.
(2) Marginal changes in hedging value
In the current environment, Bridgewater may believe that the hedging value of zero-yield gold is insufficient to cover opportunity costs, while the US stock market and selected technology sectors offer a better risk-reward ratio.
IV. Looking to the Future: Seeking Balance Amidst Uncertainty
1. Introduction: A New Equilibrium under the New Macroeconomic Paradigm
Bridgewater's strategy for 2025 is not simply to be bullish or bearish, but rather to adapt to macroeconomic turning points by building a more resilient portfolio, while acknowledging unpredictability.
2. The internal logic of the strategy
(1) Replacing traditional hedging with breadth
Increasing holdings of S&P 500 ETFs is not only a reflection of optimism about the US market, but also a way to diversify risk by replacing a single asset (such as gold) with market breadth.
(2) Maintaining agility during change
Bridgewater selects technology stocks with clearer fundamentals and more reasonable valuations amid the AI wave in order to cope with the dynamic process of "the unknown becoming the known".
(3) Adhere to the "all-weather" concept
The current adjustment is a dynamic practice of Bridgewater's "All Weather" concept under the new macro paradigm. Its goal is to maintain portfolio balance under different scenarios, rather than sacrificing upside potential for a single defense.
In summary, Bridgewater's investment strategy for 2025 is a proactive evolution: abandoning old anchors of balance amidst uncertainty, and instead building new portfolio resilience through broader diversification and more precise agility.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice.
