The price of Ethereum has remained almost unchanged over the past week, and no significant movement has occurred, despite continuous forecasts being made. On the surface, nothing seems to be happening. However, both the chart and blockchain data together tell a very different story. A clear breakout structure is forming, and at the same time, the selling pressure from long-term holders has collapsed.
Such a combination is rare. If the structure holds, Ethereum's next major movement may already be underway.
Inverse head-and-shoulders breakout aligns with on-chain selling collapse.
In the daily chart, Ethereum clearly forms a recognizable reverse head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. The structure has a relatively horizontal neckline near the $3,400 area, which is important. Flat necklines usually attract stronger continuation movement when the price eventually breaks through the level.
If Ethereum clearly closes above this neckline (around $3,400), the target measured from the confirmed pattern will set at around the $4,400 level. This target is determined directly from the height of the head upwards. Technically speaking, the structure is clear.
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What makes this pattern more interesting are the events in blockchain data.
The Hodler Net Position Change metric measures whether long-term holders are selling or accumulating. Since November 26, this metric has changed dramatically. At that time, long-term holders sold about 1.1 million ETH. By December 23, the figure had dropped to only 54,427 ETH.
Selling pressure has thus decreased by over 95%.
This matters because long-term holders typically reduce selling near significant turning points. When a breakout pattern forms and selling pressure simultaneously collapses, it suggests that supply is decreasing rather than increasing. This provides a stronger foundation for any potential upward movement above the neckline.
In simplified terms: the chart communicates a breakout, and blockchain data indicates that sellers have diminished as an obstacle.
Cost basis levels and key Ethereum price ranges.
The next question is whether Ethereum can realistically reach and exceed the neckline.
Cost basis data helps answer this. The cost basis shows where large amounts of ETH were last acquired. These zones often act as resistance levels when the price returns to them, as holders may sell their holdings near their cost price.
The most important cost basis cluster for Ethereum is located between $3,150 and $3,173. In this range, about 2,940,000 ETH was accumulated. This forms the strongest supply wall on the path of the rise.
A sustained move above this area would open the path towards the $3,400 neckline. From the current level, this would mean about a 7% increase. It's worth noting that the $3,150 level also appears on the price chart, highlighting its significance.
Once the level above $3,400 is reached, the next important level is closer to $3,480, and after that, there is a relatively thin resistance level all the way up to about $4,170.
If the sentiment strengthens after the breakout, the overall target of the reverse head-and-shoulders pattern around $4,400 could be possible.
However, risks still exist, and they are clearly identifiable. If Ethereum loses the $2,800 level, the structure weakens. A drop below $2,620 would completely invalidate the bullish setup and suggest that sellers are back in control.
Currently, however, the balance favors an increase. A textbook reversal pattern, a sharp collapse in long-term selling, and a clear resistance map all point to the same conclusion. However, the success of the bull theory requires a clear close above $3,150, i.e., above the supply wall zone.
