青玥公主
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$ETH Core Situation Assessment: Is it 'Bottom Building' or 'Continuation of Downtrend'?
• Short-term Support Confirmation: ETH spiked and rebounded around $2,962, indicating that there is indeed strong buying pressure from long positions and short covering in this range.
• Indicator Repair Demand: The 15-minute/1-hour KDJ is in an oversold state at a low level. Technically, a pullback is needed to digest the deviation caused by the sharp drop in the early morning.
• Trend Determination: Rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily levels still lean bearish. Therefore, the next strategy is: repurchase short positions at high levels > short-term long positions at support levels.
Short positions will be re-established at high levels (main strategy, in line with the medium-term trend)
The ideal second short point will slightly shift downwards:
• First Resistance Zone: $3,010 - $3,025 (1-hour Bollinger midline).
• Second Resistance Zone: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the starting point of the early morning drop).
• If the price pulls back to around $3,025 and an upper shadow appears, short positions can be re-entered (position can be set at 1/2 of the previous one).
• Stop Loss: Set at $3,075 (stop loss must be executed if it breaks the previous high).
• Take Profit: Look back at the densely liquidating area for long positions around $2,950.
3. Risk/Opportunity Weight Before Christmas
• 24-hour Risk: If it breaks below $2,950, it will trigger the $850 million long liquidation we calculated previously. At that time, the market will show a vertical drop, directly targeting $2,880.
• Christmas Market: Historically, there are often 'fake outs' followed by a rise on Christmas Eve (23-24).
Core Observation: Look for the 'Golden Pit'
Liquidity Hunting (high win rate spike entry for longs)
• Extreme Entry Point: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense Liquidation Zone: The $2,950 we mentioned earlier is just the first line of defense. The real last line of defense for bulls and the dense liquidation zone is around $2,880 - $2,900.
• Daily Level Support: Referencing daily candlesticks, the lower Bollinger band is currently extending upwards, forming strong support around $2,880.
• Operation Suggestion: Don't place orders directly, but wait for the price to rapidly spike down below $2,950, and when it quickly decreases in volume around $2,900 or even shows a 15-minute long lower shadow, enter the market at market price.
• Stop Loss: $2,840 (if it breaks below the previous low, the Christmas market will basically declare an end).
• Target Level: Look back at $3,050.
Confirm Reversal (right-side safe entry for longs)
• Confirmation Entry Point: $3,035 - $3,045
• Short-term Support Confirmation: ETH spiked and rebounded around $2,962, indicating that there is indeed strong buying pressure from long positions and short covering in this range.
• Indicator Repair Demand: The 15-minute/1-hour KDJ is in an oversold state at a low level. Technically, a pullback is needed to digest the deviation caused by the sharp drop in the early morning.
• Trend Determination: Rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily levels still lean bearish. Therefore, the next strategy is: repurchase short positions at high levels > short-term long positions at support levels.
Short positions will be re-established at high levels (main strategy, in line with the medium-term trend)
The ideal second short point will slightly shift downwards:
• First Resistance Zone: $3,010 - $3,025 (1-hour Bollinger midline).
• Second Resistance Zone: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the starting point of the early morning drop).
• If the price pulls back to around $3,025 and an upper shadow appears, short positions can be re-entered (position can be set at 1/2 of the previous one).
• Stop Loss: Set at $3,075 (stop loss must be executed if it breaks the previous high).
• Take Profit: Look back at the densely liquidating area for long positions around $2,950.
3. Risk/Opportunity Weight Before Christmas
• 24-hour Risk: If it breaks below $2,950, it will trigger the $850 million long liquidation we calculated previously. At that time, the market will show a vertical drop, directly targeting $2,880.
• Christmas Market: Historically, there are often 'fake outs' followed by a rise on Christmas Eve (23-24).
Core Observation: Look for the 'Golden Pit'
Liquidity Hunting (high win rate spike entry for longs)
• Extreme Entry Point: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense Liquidation Zone: The $2,950 we mentioned earlier is just the first line of defense. The real last line of defense for bulls and the dense liquidation zone is around $2,880 - $2,900.
• Daily Level Support: Referencing daily candlesticks, the lower Bollinger band is currently extending upwards, forming strong support around $2,880.
• Operation Suggestion: Don't place orders directly, but wait for the price to rapidly spike down below $2,950, and when it quickly decreases in volume around $2,900 or even shows a 15-minute long lower shadow, enter the market at market price.
• Stop Loss: $2,840 (if it breaks below the previous low, the Christmas market will basically declare an end).
• Target Level: Look back at $3,050.
Confirm Reversal (right-side safe entry for longs)
• Confirmation Entry Point: $3,035 - $3,045
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
