The United States plans to impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductors starting in 2027. Will the A-shares panic tomorrow?

The U.S. Trade Representative's Office officially announced: plans to impose tariffs on China's semiconductor industry starting in 2027! Once the news broke, the semiconductor community was instantly abuzz. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian directly criticized it at a press conference in the afternoon, saying that this is the U.S. 'arbitrarily imposing tariffs and unreasonable suppression,' disrupting the global supply chain, and ultimately will only 'harm others and harm itself.' He also clearly stated that if the U.S. insists on going its own way, China will definitely take countermeasures.

What everyone is most concerned about is whether the A-shares will experience a 'major earthquake' in the semiconductor sector when the market opens tomorrow. This concern is very direct, as the policy targets our core area of 'hard technology.' Let's break down the impacts:

First, don't panic! The timeline is 2027! These tariffs will not take effect starting tomorrow, and the specific tax rates will need to be announced at least a month in advance. This gives the market a considerable buffer period and time for maneuvering. This means that the market's reaction tomorrow will be more about emotional shocks and concerns about future uncertainties, rather than an immediate significant decline in actual performance.

How large is China's semiconductor export volume to the U.S.? According to industry research data, in recent years, under the continuous pressure of U.S. technology controls, the proportion of China's direct semiconductor exports to the U.S. has already declined (compared to the peak a few years ago). Some analysts believe that while the absolute amount of semiconductor devices produced in China (including packaged chips, discrete devices, etc.) exported to the U.S. is not small, its share in China's overall semiconductor industry revenue is not absolutely dominant, and alternative markets (such as other regions in Asia, emerging markets, and domestic demand) are growing. However, losing the U.S. market, especially some specific customers and orders, will still be a significant loss for some Chinese semiconductor companies.

The coexistence of tariff increases and 'release' creates a complex contradiction. Interestingly, on one hand, the U.S. announced tariffs loudly (even mentioning exaggerated numbers like 100%), while on the other hand, just a few days ago (December 8), it announced that it would allow NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to China (though with a 25% revenue share), and stated that similar arrangements apply to AMD, Intel, etc. This indicates that the policy is not monolithic and there is room for interest balancing and 'conditional exemptions.' This complexity also increases the uncertainty of future policy directions.

Impact on the A-share semiconductor industry: short-term emotional pressure, long-term forced strengthening.

Short-term (especially tomorrow): The impact is unavoidable, and market sentiment will be significantly under pressure. Tariffs mean that future costs and market access uncertainties will increase significantly. Investors will worry about export obstacles and profit losses. The entire sector, especially companies with a high proportion of export business or customers in the U.S. market, will face greater price pressure. The market may generally reflect a risk-averse sentiment, with funds potentially flowing out of related sectors in the short term.

Medium term (1-2 years): A period of maneuvering and observation. There is still some time before 2027, during which there will inevitably be a series of diplomatic consultations between China and the U.S. and possible countermeasures introduced, with specific tax rates and product lists also needing clarification. The results of policy maneuvering will greatly affect expectations. In addition, companies will also actively adjust strategies, including expanding into other markets, strengthening domestic alternatives, and seeking 'exemption' qualifications in the U.S.

Long term: A more determined path towards 'domestic substitution' and 'self-reliance.' This dose of 'tariff medicine' once again rings alarm bells for China's semiconductor industry: core technologies must be under our own control, and excessive reliance on external markets (especially the U.S.) poses huge risks. The level of support from the national level will only increase, and the market's expectations and investment enthusiasm for domestic equipment, materials, chip design, manufacturing, and other key links are likely to be further stimulated. This could, in the long run, form a supporting logic for A-share companies that truly possess core technological competitiveness and are supported by national funds. On the demand side, the vast domestic market remains a strong backing.

In summary: The probability of the A-share semiconductor sector dropping significantly tomorrow (Thursday) is very high, which is an inevitable emotional release brought about by significant policy negativity. But investors need to view this rationally:

There is a buffer period for actual tax collection.

The scope of taxation (especially whether it targets mature processes) is still unclear.

The China-U.S. game is not over, and there are variables.

Long-term logic remains unchanged, and may even strengthen the 'domestic substitution' main line.

Therefore, although the market may be filled with 'chip' panic tomorrow, panic selling may not be the optimal choice. Investors need to pay more attention to the fundamentals of specific companies, their reliance on exports to the U.S., technological barriers, and their true position in the wave of domestic substitution. This event, in the long run, is more like another pressure test and growth catalyst for China's semiconductor industry on the thorny road. The market's short-term 'pain' may be the price for accelerating 'strong chips' in the long term.