A new analysis again raises one of the most important discussions in the crypto market: should investors hold or sell tokens after the airdrop.
Information shared by a trader indicates that most of the airdropped tokens significantly lose value after launch. This raises questions about whether selling is a more sensible strategy.
Most of the returns from crypto tokens remain small after launch, the analysis states
Recently on X (formerly Twitter), cryptocurrency trader Didi tracked his own airdrop receipts over the last year. According to the data, almost all tokens experienced significant losses in the first few days. For example, M3M3 dropped 99.64%, Elixir fell 99.50%, and USUAL decreased by 97.67%.
Significant projects have also lost value considerably. Magic Eden dropped 96.6%, Jupiter fell 75.9% from its TGE price, and Monad has decreased by 39.13% since its debut. The only token whose price was above its initial value was Avantis, which rose by 30.4%.
"Of the 30 airdrops I've received since December 2024, only one is trading slightly above its TGE price today. Still, selling the airdrop immediately after launch makes you somewhat of a 'traitor.' Let's be honest – we're here to make money. Anyone who claims otherwise is lying to themselves," the publication stated.
The analyst added that based on historical data, holding altcoins for the long term is a low-probability strategy where the risk of losses clearly outweighs the chance of sustained gains.
"Understand the environment you operate in and prioritize capital preservation above all else. Profits are only real when they are realized," Didi said.
Market-wide analyses support these conclusions. Memento Research examined 118 token generation events in 2025 and found that 84.7% of the launched tokens are currently below their TGE value.
Additionally, 65% of these tokens have lost about half their value. At the same time, more than half have dropped by 70% or more.
The report highlighted that projects that started with a high fully diluted valuation (FDV) performed particularly poorly. Of the 28 launches with an FDV of at least one billion dollars, none are currently in the green.
"When the year is divided into quarters of the starting FDV, the pattern is clear: the cheapest and lowest FDV launches were the only group with a significant survival rate (40% in green) and the mid-level drop was moderate (~-26%), while everything above that was practically priced to the bottom, with median losses of ~-70% to -83% and hardly any green," the report stated.
One analyst noted that many crypto projects target billion-dollar valuations regardless of the product's development stage or utility. Several tokens open for trading at levels that do not reflect their fundamental or fair value, leading to rapid revaluation as soon as market forces come into play.
"Anyone who doesn't sell the majority of these drops at TGE doesn't understand valuations," he noted.
Airdrop fatigue is increasing as mechanics weaken and trust diminishes.
Besides price pressure, investor interest in airdrops has been waning in 2025 due to structural reasons. Market participants increasingly argue that the airdrop model is now too complex, exclusive, and prone to abuse.
Crypto commentator Maran illustrated this shift by comparing the mechanics of previous and current airdrops. In earlier cycles, airdrop participation often required minimal engagement, such as connecting a wallet, and relatively large allocations were distributed.
In 2025, many projects are using stricter eligibility criteria, such as longer commitment periods, technical requirements, registration windows, or throughput timelines.
"At that time, getting a four-digit sum was easy. Now a four-digit amount is the top," the user added.
Another analyst claimed that airdrops are "completely broken" in 2025. Zamza Salim emphasized that Sybil attacks have undermined several high-profile airdrops in 2025, despite countermeasures.
"The airdrop meta in 2025 is ruined. Don't waste a month collecting crumbs while farmers take 20%," Salim commented.
Overall, fresh data highlights a recurring pattern where airdropped tokens underperform after launch. Additionally, they point to broader structural challenges in the airdrop model. While some tokens can maintain or increase their value over time, high initial valuations, market price corrections, and changing distribution mechanisms make the outcome quite uncertain.
