#美国GDP更新 As of December 23, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce BEA announced the preliminary year-on-year annualized growth rate of the real GDP for Q3 2025 at 4.3% (previous value 3.8%), significantly higher than the market expectation of 3.3%, reaching a two-year high. Below are the key points and their impact on the cryptocurrency market.

1. Key Data and Structure

- Driving Factors: Personal consumption expenditures increased by 3.5% (contributing +2.4pct), exports increased by 8.8% (contributing +1.6pct), and government spending increased by 2.2%.

- Dragging Factors: Non-residential fixed investment increased by only 2.8% (previous value 7.3%), inventory drag has weakened.

- Inflation Relation: GDP deflator index at 3.8% (previous value 2.1%), core PCE around 2.9%, inflation showing moderate recovery.

- Scope Note: This is a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate, not year-on-year; BEA will have two more revisions later.

2. Market and Cryptocurrency Impact

1. Federal Reserve Policy: Strong growth + inflation recovery, January rate cut expectations cooling, probability of maintaining high interest rates rising, suppressing risk asset valuations.

2. Liquidity: USD short-term strong, cryptocurrency market under pressure, BTC/ETH difficult to gain macro incremental support.

3. Rhythm Judgment: Q3 data lagging (July-September), Q4 may significantly slow down due to government shutdown, annual growth rate may be below 2%, with a mid-term rate cut window still available.

3. Trading Response (Cryptocurrency Short-term)

- Core Idea: Macro is relatively neutral to tight, maintain operations in the range of 87,000-88,000, breakout strategy as before; pay attention to Friday's options expiration and volatility amplification under liquidity contraction.

- Risk Control Reinforcement: Christmas holiday position ≤ 20%, stop loss not exceeding 1% of principal, avoid chasing highs/selling lows.