Brothers, Mig is here.
Just finished reviewing the data, my back feels a bit cold—because the real storm is not today, but tomorrow. Now BTC is hovering at 87174, but this is very likely the last calm before the storm.
Are you the chips waiting to be harvested on the table, or the hunter holding the sickle? The difference lies in tonight’s understanding and operation.
In-depth analysis of the news: Tomorrow, a $23.6 billion 'pricing power war'.
Everyone is saying that there are 23.6 billion options expiring on Friday, but 90% of people misunderstand the key point. The key is not the 'maximum pain point of 96000', but rather 'time'.
Motivation of the operators: Before expiration, the controlling party has tremendous benefits to keep the price as low as possible, causing a large number of call options to expire worthless. This usually means: before expiration, there is significant upward resistance, and sudden crashes or violent fluctuations are likely to occur.
Turning point: The real directional choice often occurs after the expiration delivery is completed. At that time, the short-term forces that suppress the price disappear, and the market will move in a more genuine direction. Therefore, today is 'gambling day,' and tomorrow after delivery is 'decision day.'
Mig's summary: The news is short-term positive, beware of the 'price suppression before expiration' scenario. If you are not clear about the specific points, you can follow Mig, who reminds friends who have paid attention to me in real-time 24 hours a day. Chat Room
Looking at the technical aspect, the 4-hour chart is quite straightforward.
Above: 89500 is the key resistance, and above that, 91500 is like a big mountain.
Below: 86500 is the first support; if it breaks, look at the 84000-8300 bottom area.
More importantly, the MACD yellow and white lines have already dropped below the 0 axis, indicating that short-term momentum is weakening, and bears are dominant.
The current price is like hanging halfway up the mountain, climbing up is heavily resisted, while sliding down is much easier.
Mig's summary: The technical structure is bearish, with heavy resistance to rebounds, and the downside space is actually opening up. Where exactly to enter, and where is the safest stop-loss? Mig Village has already given reminders; those who want to follow should become villagers of Mig! Chat Room
What specifically should retail investors do? Remember these points:
Heavy positions: If it rebounds to the 88500-89500 area, it is recommended to reduce positions or lay out short positions, with a stop-loss set at 90500.
For those with no positions: Focus on observing the strength of the 86500 support; if it breaks, look at 85000-84000, and positions can be built in batches.
Stuck: If it rebounds to around 89000, reduce losses and lower positions to protect capital.
Mig's personal view: Tonight I still see a decline, but the overall downward intensity will not be too obvious. Is a direct V rebound up to the pressure level probable? Very low. But could it drop straight to 84000 without looking back? The operators might think it's too wasteful. During market panic, a slight rebound to the 88000-89000 range can create a 'stabilization' illusion, attracting retail investors to chase long positions, and then pushing down again to test 86500 or even deeper.
The market often starts when no one pays attention and ends when there is a lot of noise. The current market is still anxious, indicating that the real big opportunity has not yet arrived.
After the expiration of this 236 billion options, there will often be a significant reverse fluctuation of 'expected realization.' If you do not know the specific entry and exit timing, and for those holding positions, you can follow Mig, who will announce daily currencies, entry points, and exit timings in the chat room!!
