XRP has entered the final quarter under heavy pressure after severe selling has largely erased the gains that had been accumulated previously. The decline in this fourth quarter has put this altcoin on track to close the year 2025 in negative territory.
Nevertheless, hopes remain that investor buying activity may attempt to reverse the pressure before the end of this year.
XRP holders are selling at a loss
The profit and loss data on the network shows that selling in Q4 has been unusually intense, as XRP holders are selling at a loss, indicating that sentiment has decreased. Typically, major coin investors hold on even when prices drop, expecting a recovery in the future without cutting losses.
But this round seems different, as selling at a loss reflects increased uncertainty about XRP's short-term outlook. This behavior demonstrates a risk-averse sentiment outweighing long-term belief, resulting in continued downward pressure throughout the quarter.
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The overall returns of XRP still indicate challenges, as the current market cycle threatens to end the year with positive annual returns for two consecutive years. In 2023, XRP surged 81%, followed by a jump of 238% in 2024, driven by improved legal clarity and speculative demand.
On the contrary, in 2025 there is a weakening momentum. Therefore, if the price level remains the same, XRP may end the year with a decline of about 11%. This reversal also reflects that changing macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment can alter strong historical trends.
Despite the correction, activity on the XRP Ledger has decreased at the end of December. Network data reveals that the number of wallet addresses with daily transactions has hit a low of 34,005. This decline in user activity also shows that participation from both retail and institutional investors remains weak.
Typically, increased transactions are often associated with improved demand, while low usage may lead to price declines due to affecting liquidity and reducing interest from the network's utility. The decline towards the end of this year may reflect strategic positioning ahead of 2026 rather than short-term speculation.
Currently, XRP is trading near USD1.85, down 11% compared to the beginning of 2025. To recover from the annual loss, the token must rise to USD2.10. Achieving this level would allow XRP to finish the year close to its original value and maintain its long-term investment performance record.
However, currently, the downside risks remain. If market conditions worsen and if the price cannot hold above USD1.85, it may also drop to USD1.70. Such a scenario would confirm a negative outlook and lead to uncertainty early in 2026.
The price recovery path depends on defending the support level of USD1.85 along with increased participation. If this level can be maintained, there is a chance to rebound to USD1.94. Breaking this resistance is crucial to flipping USD2.00 into support and paving the way to the target of USD2.10.
