Barclays Revises U.S. GDP Outlook — Growth Forecast Gets a Boost Ahead of 2026

Global banking giant Barclays has revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, signaling confidence that the economy will continue to expand despite soft economic signals earlier in the year. The update reflects strengthening consumer demand and underlying economic resilience, even as external risks linger.

According to Barclays economists, U.S. GDP growth for Q4 is now projected at around 2.0% (annualized) — up by roughly 0.3 percentage points from their previous estimate. This upward revision suggests that softer components such as net exports may have exaggerated earlier weakness, while robust consumer spending helped sustain overall activity toward year-end.

Barclays noted that although economic momentum varied through 2025, with uneven performance across sectors, total demand had gained momentum by late in the year. With consumers continuing to spend and services holding up, the bank believes the U.S. economy may maintain moderate growth, even as inflation and policy uncertainty keep markets attentive.

Why it matters:

A higher Q4 GDP forecast supports continued economic resilience despite earlier disruptions.

Consumer spending remains a key driver of growth.

Markets may interpret the revision as encouraging for equities and risk assets heading into 2026.

Barclays’ updated outlook adds to the broader narrative of a U.S. economy that is slowing from its rapid mid-year pace but still avoiding contraction as 2025 closes.