According to economists at Barclays, the surprise acceleration in U.S. third quarter growth is less about statistical noise and more about real demand. Net exports likely inflated the top line figure, but that isn’t where the real story sits.
What stands out is consumer spending. Even after market fluctuations in the first half of 2025, households kept showing up. They spent, adapted and absorbed higher rates without a sudden pullback. That persistence is why U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to read this data as confirmation that the economy still has underlying strength.
Momentum, once it returns, rarely does so quietly. By the end of the year 2025, total demand had clearly regained its footing. Reflecting this, Barclays has nudged its fourth quarter GDP growth forecast up by about 0.3 percentage points to 2.0%. well we cannot consider It a boom narrative but surely it is a resilience one.
