Weird! The NASDAQ and gold hit new highs, but Bitcoin can't seem to move? The underlying logic and operational advice are here.

🤔 The recent trends in the crypto market have been too surreal! A strange phenomenon must be heeded: the NASDAQ surged to 23500, approaching the previous high of 24000, gold is racing towards 4500 aiming for new highs, yet Bitcoin struggles to even reach 90, completely breaking away from the rhythm of the US stock market!

It’s important to note that in the past, when the NASDAQ reached new highs, Bitcoin had already soared above 120000. This kind of divergence is definitely not a coincidence. The key reason is clear: the liquidity released by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has fully flowed into the US stock market and gold, and hasn’t entered the crypto market at all!

Digging deeper into the reasons: ① Whales are offloading and switching positions; the recent significant drop in Bitcoin was due to whales shifting their holdings to Ethereum; ② Policy impacts compounded; previous related policies in China triggered capital flight and liquidation, even USDT followed suit and dropped; ③ ETFs are continuously losing blood, the total amount of Bitcoin ETFs fell from 150 billion to 120 billion, institutional capital is voting with their feet.

⚠️ There is also a potential risk point: Recently, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Japan have been frequently at odds, and it is crucial to pay attention to whether there will be further friction. Historical experience shows that when geopolitical conflicts escalate, cryptocurrencies often decline alongside risk assets.

Regarding the market outlook and sectors: I still believe Bitcoin hasn’t hit the bottom yet, but I’ve also retained some positions—after all, the market always has surprises, and one cannot be overly confident in predictions. The moment to wait for now is the return of funds from gold and the US stock market to the crypto market, especially the risk-averse funds from gold; currently, altcoins are nearly drained of funds!

Additionally, a cold shower: Don’t be overly optimistic about how much liquidity AI, RWA, and stock tokenization can bring. Essentially, this just changes the form of bonds; just like cash becoming mobile payment is merely more convenient, the real money-making comes from the public chains providing the technology, while other sectors are likely to have manipulators pulling strings and cutting profits, and once the narrative is over, it cools off.

📌 Final operational advice: The recent market trend is chaotic, and the best strategy is to "wait with light positions." Retain some positions; whether there is a significant drop or rise at the beginning of next year, you won’t completely miss out, and this is the prudent way to deal with the current surreal market!