In a recent analysis, economist "Blour Dadi" discussed the conditions expected to affect the Bitcoin market in 2026, focusing mainly on liquidity factors in the United States rather than factors specific to the cryptocurrency market.
His argument summary is that the current scenario is "narrow" unusually, and that the improvement in conditions will depend on a return to "normalcy."
🤔 Four main topics will shape the economic climate for Bitcoin
The analyst identified four macroeconomic drivers that will be critical for Bitcoin next year:
· 1. Federal Reserve purchases: He clarified that the Federal Reserve has already begun injecting liquidity of $40 billion monthly as part of a 3-month program, aimed at easing funding pressures rather than aggressively stimulating the markets. He anticipated that this program would have a meaningful impact on improving liquidity.
· 2. Increasing fiscal expansion: The analyst anticipated a modest widening of the fiscal deficit starting in January, estimated at around $12 to $15 billion monthly, after tariffs previously caused a contraction that negatively affected the markets.
· 3. Declining inflation and the path of monetary policy: Described the current situation as a "comfortable state," where declining inflation allows the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates. The market currently expects only two cuts during the year, but the analyst anticipates up to 4 cuts.
· 4. Political factors (Federal Reserve Chair): The analyst saw that the future appointment of the Federal Reserve Chair will be of utmost importance, noting that the potential candidate "Kevin Hassett" could have a positive impact on gold and stocks in the long run.
💎 Summary and forecasts for Bitcoin
The analyst concluded that an improvement in these four combined conditions should theoretically benefit assets like Bitcoin. However, he expressed his personal caution, noting that he prefers to invest in gold currently due to the complexities of the cryptocurrency market.
Nevertheless, he provided an important time signal: "If you are going to be optimistic about Bitcoin, the right time for that is now approximately." He advised investors not to take excessive risks but to monitor the improvement in liquidity and the positive market response.
The price of Bitcoin at the time of the original report was $87,053.@Binance Square Official
