XRP — the market’s fifth-largest cryptocurrency — has retraced roughly half of its value from this year’s $3.65 all-time high and is now trading around $1.90, according to CoinGecko. As traders weigh the next move, a new Monte Carlo AI simulation from market analyst Sam Daodu offers a probabilistic roadmap of where XRP might sit by the end of 2026. What the simulation did Daodu ran 10,000 simulated price paths to capture a wide range of possible outcomes rather than a single “prediction.” Monte Carlo models produce a distribution of results, letting investors see not just one number but how likely different price zones are. Key takeaways (end-2026 outlook) - Mean (average) across all scenarios: ~$2.78 — above current levels, but skewed upward by some large outliers. - Median (50th percentile): $1.88 — half the outcomes fall below this level, suggesting most scenarios cluster near today’s price. - Central 50% (25th–75th percentiles): $1.04 to $3.40 — about 60% of simulations land in this range, making it the most probable corridor. - Bull case (90th percentile): ~$5.90 — roughly a 10% chance of finishing above this, indicating some room for a major rally. - Bear case (10th percentile): below $0.59 — roughly a 10% probability that XRP could plunge more than 70% from current levels. What would drive a big rally? Daodu notes several conditions would need to align for XRP to revisit — or exceed — prior highs (near $6): sustained institutional inflows (he cites ETF flows above $50 million per day through 2026), materially higher real-world use of XRP for bank cross-border settlements, and continued regulatory clarity without major reversals. Downside risks The model also flags clear downside scenarios. Regulatory setbacks — for example, stricter custody rules or renewed complications stemming from past SEC disputes — and fading investor confidence if XRP’s promised utility adoption lags could push prices sharply lower. Why the mean and median differ The average (~$2.78) is higher than the median ($1.88) because a handful of extreme upside outcomes lift the mean. The median better reflects where most scenarios concentrate, while the mean highlights the influence of outliers. Current market snapshot Per CoinGecko, XRP is trading near $1.90, down about 2% over the past 24 hours. Charting and further context are available on TradingView; the simulation results were shared publicly by Sam Daodu. Bottom line The Monte Carlo simulation doesn’t give a single forecast—it lays out probabilities. Most simulated outcomes put XRP in a $1–$3.40 range by end-2026, with a small chance of both a sharp breakout and a deep sell-off. For investors, that means weighing the realistic upside against nontrivial regulatory and adoption risks before positioning. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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