The price of HBAR continues to create ongoing disappointment, with the token decreasing by about 26% over the past month and falling nearly 67% year-on-year, reflecting continuous weakness in both price and participation. Meanwhile, what makes this moment more critical is that HBAR is trading in a zone that may retest the lows that occurred last in October 2024.
Technical graphs clearly show that the price has broken below the main support level, while buying pressure continues to gradually decrease. However, one unusual figure indicates that this downtrend may be nearing exhaustion. The important question now is whether this contextual factor will change the overall picture.
The bear flag breakout signal indicates the risk of continued trends.
On the 4-hour chart, HBAR has confirmed a perfect breakout from the bear flag pattern, which occurs when the price sharply declines, followed by a narrow range consolidation with a slightly upward or sideways direction, and then continues to drop. This is considered a continuation signal, not a reversal signal.
The price of HBAR has briefly broken below the flag near 0.109 USD, and the price remains in that zone without a clear rebound.
Staying below this level is therefore highly important. If we use the height of the flagpole as a basis, it is predicted that breaking this support may lead to a decline of about 28% from the upper boundary of the flag, and from the current level, it means the target is around the 0.068 USD zone. However, if the 4-hour candle can close above the lower trend line of the bear flag, the downside risk may temporarily weaken.
This level closely aligns with the lowest zone that was traded during October-November 2024. Therefore, this drop carries the risk of forming a low point over several months, not just a short-term decline.
The evidence confirming the next sequence also comes from the coin flow data on exchanges, where buying pressure has continually weakened over several weeks.
On December 5th, net outflow data showed signs of buying when prices dipped, with HBAR exiting exchanges by over 4.09 million USD. However, afterward, this behavior gradually declined, and by December 24th, the net outflow was only 314,830 HBAR.
That is a decline of more than 92% of net buying power in the market.
In simple terms, even though prices have decreased, buyers are not coming in with confidence. On the contrary, cash inflows are turning positive intermittently, indicating that selling pressure has returned rapidly after only minor pullbacks, reflecting panic selling when the bear flag pattern breaks and buying pressure disappears simultaneously. The likelihood of continued movement will increase rapidly.
This is why this drop has not attracted a crowd of aggressive dip buyers, as the market does not yet see value in this area.
The minority opinion indicates that the downtrend might be crowded.
The only balancing factor resisting this downtrend comes from the sentiment of investors.
The social positive sentiment score of HBAR has dropped from a peak near 76.97 in late October to about 1.62 now, reflecting a decrease of nearly 98% and indicating extreme indifference rather than panicked enthusiasm.
Historically, when sentiment scores drop this low, it often leads to a temporary bounce in the short term. For example, on November 9th, when the sentiment score hit a low, the price of HBAR surged from about 0.17 USD to 0.19 USD in one day, representing an increase of about 12%. And on December 1st, sentiment weakened again before the price moved from 0.13 USD to 0.14 USD, or an increase of about 14% within two days.
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This is an out-of-the-box signal that still gives hope.
However, context is important because those rebounds occur during times when structural selling pressure is not severe and there is still some buying interest. But nowadays, investor sentiment has declined alongside confirmed signals of the bear flag breaking down and demand disappearing, making this signal less reliable than before.
In a weak market, severe negative sentiment can last longer than we expect.
What will happen next with the price of HBAR?
The price of HBAR is currently at a critical turning point. The main signals remain bearish, including the formation of a broken bear flag, the disappearance of buying pressure, and the price falling below key support levels. Therefore, as long as the price remains below 0.109 USD, the downside risk to the 0.079 USD zone and possibly continuing to 0.068 USD (according to the 4-hour chart) still exists.
The only obstacle to this path is emotional fatigue. However, if negative sentiment triggers speculative buying during another price drop, HBAR may experience a short-term bounce. But if there is no clear buying pressure returning, this bounce may fade away, unless the price can return to above 0.155 USD, which is the starting point of the downtrend.
