The price of HBAR continues to remain weak. The token has decreased by about 26% in the last month and nearly 67% over the year. This shows both low prices and little activity. The most important thing now is where HBAR is traded. The price may now approach levels we last saw in October 2024. Therefore, there is a risk of new bottom levels that we have not seen in several months.
The chart clearly shows the decline. The buying pressure has consistently weakened. But an unusual measurement suggests that the decline may soon be over. The big question is whether it can turn the situation around now.
Bear Flag decline shows risk for continued trend
In the four-hour chart, HBAR has broken down from a clear bear flag. A bear flag is seen when the price falls sharply, consolidates in a narrow upward or sideways channel, and then continues to fall. It is a pattern that indicates continued decline, not a reversal upward.
HBAR's price briefly went below the flag's level near 0.109 USD, and the price has not turned upward since then.
That confirmation is important. If we measure from the height of the flagpole, a fall of about 28% is expected from the top of the flag. From current levels, the targets are towards the 0.068 USD zone. However, if the four-hour candle closes above the lower trendline of the flag, the risk of decline may decrease right now.
That level is close to bottom levels that were traded in October-November 2024. Therefore, this decline is larger than just a quick dip.
The second confirmation comes from data on stock flows. Buying pressure has decreased for several weeks.
On December 5, net outflows of about 4,090,000 HBAR indicated that some bought the dip. Since then, it has decreased. On December 24, the net outflows were only 314,830 HBAR.
It is a drop of more than 92% in buying pressure on the exchange.
Simply put, even when the price fell, no strong buyers came in. Instead, inflows were even positive at times, so sellers quickly came back after small dips. This shows signs of panic selling. When a bear flag is broken and buying pressure disappears simultaneously, the likelihood of continued decline increases significantly.
Therefore, we do not see aggressive buyers now. The market does not consider this level a bargain yet.
An unusual market belief suggests that the decline may be overdone
The only thing against the decline is the sentiment.
HBAR's positive sentiment on social media has crashed. It went from a peak of 76.97 at the end of October to just about 1.62 now. This is a drop of nearly 98%. It shows mostly disinterest, not panic.
Historically, similar bottoms in sentiment have given short relief rallies. On November 9, when sentiment was low, HBAR rose from about 0.17 USD to 0.19 USD during a session, which is about 12%. On December 1, after a new dip in sentiment, the price rose from 0.13 USD to 0.14 USD in two days, which is about 14%.
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It is this factor that still gives a bit of hope.
But context matters. Previous rises came when selling pressure was lower and some buyers remained. Today, we see the same low sentiment along with a confirmed bear flag and weak demand. Therefore, the signal is less reliable now.
In weak markets, extremely negative sentiment can persist longer than one might think.
What happens next with HBAR's price
HBAR's price stands at an important crossroads. The strongest signals point downward: A broken bear flag, collapsed buying pressure, and establishment below key support levels. As long as the price is below 0.109 USD, the risk of continued decline towards 0.079 USD and possibly 0.068 USD (according to the four-hour chart) remains.
The only thing against that scenario is that the market feels tired of negative sentiment. If negative sentiment once again leads investors to buy temporary dips, HBAR could see a short relief rally. But without clear buying power, the rise quickly loses strength, unless the price reclaims 0.155 USD, where the decline started.
