Tom Lee recently stated that the price of Bitcoin could exceed $100,000 before the end of 2025. This is a bold prediction given that Bitcoin is showing a sideways trend and momentum appears weak. On the surface, the market seems unprepared. Large inflows of capital are weakening, long-term holders are selling, and price movements remain constrained.
However, there is still one path left for Bitcoin. This path does not rely on new purchases. It depends on positions.
Large capital, conviction holders still face headwinds.
The first issue with Tom Lee's Bitcoin price prediction highlighted by CNBC stems from capital flow.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks large capital inflows and outflows, continues to show weakness. From December 17 to December 23, Bitcoin prices rose slightly, but the CMF showed a decline. This is a bearish signal. In other words, prices are maintained, but large investors are reducing their positions.
The CMF value plummeted over 200% after December 21, then rebounded about 68%. While the rebound looks positive, the CMF still remains below 0, indicating weak capital inflow.
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The second negative factor is long-term holders (LTH). These are wallets that typically sell late.
Over the past month, the net position changes of long-term holders have continuously recorded severe negatives. On November 23, long-term holders sold approximately 97,800 BTC in a day. On December 23, they sold nearly 279,000 BTC in a day. This is a 185% surge.
The volume release from strong conviction holders has significantly increased. When large capital outflows and long-term holder sell-offs occur simultaneously, sustained increases become difficult.
The only way for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by year-end is through 'chain liquidations'.
Despite such headwinds, Bitcoin has not lost its options yet. However, this path relies on extraordinary strength.
The market is extremely skewed towards short positions.
Looking at the 30-day liquidation map, the cumulative short liquidation leverage is about $3.41 billion. The long position liquidation leverage is around $2.14 billion. This means that over 60% of the total leverage is positioned against the rise.
This phenomenon suggests that prices can spike due to forced liquidations even when buying pressure is weak. In simple terms, Bitcoin does not need new buyers. The short positions need to be wrong.
If prices spike, short positions will be forcibly liquidated, which triggers automatic buying pressure. This could lead to a chain reaction of additional liquidations. The same applies even if the fundamental demand is weak.
The only realistic mechanism for a spike left now is this method. The largest concentration of short positions among liquidation clusters is between $88,390 and $96,070. It is worth watching whether Bitcoin prices can enter this range.
Tom Lee's prediction for the Bitcoin price range that will determine the outcome.
For a short squeeze to begin, Bitcoin must break through a specific range.
The first range is around $91,220. If trading continues above this level, there will be liquidations of low-leverage short positions. This alone improves short-term momentum.
The key catalyst is around $97,820. This range has stopped price increases multiple times since mid-November and aligns with the most concentrated short liquidation volumes. If this level is broken, the short leverage corresponding to $3.41 billion will be at risk.
If this chain reaction begins, the Bitcoin price could quickly rise to the psychological resistance level of $100,380. It does not require strong capital inflows or support from long-term holders. However, there are clear conditions under which this scenario would be invalidated.
If Bitcoin does not recover above $91,220 and remains stagnant, CMF weakness and long-term holders' sell-offs will continue to dominate. In this case, a short squeeze will not occur, and Tom Lee's Bitcoin price prediction target will also not be achieved. Currently, Bitcoin is trapped between selling conviction and leveraged positions.
This prediction hinges on one thing: whether short position holders are forced to cover their shorts.
