Data shared by traders shows that most airdropped tokens experience a significant decline after going online. This has sparked a new round of discussions in the market about whether 'selling is the rational choice'.
Recently, cryptocurrency trader Didi posted on X (formerly Twitter), summarizing the airdrop records he received over the past year. The data shows that almost all airdropped tokens experienced significant pullbacks after going online. For example, $M3M3 dropped by 99.64%, $ELIXIR fell by 99.50%, and $USUAL decreased by 97.67%.
Additionally, most key projects also struggle to escape the fate of drastic declines. Magic Eden fell by 96.6%, $JUPITER dropped 75.9% compared to TGE price, and $MONAD has also retraced by 39.13% since its launch. The only one performing better than its initial price is $AVANTIS, currently up by 30.4%.
“Of the 30 airdrops I received since December 2024, only one is currently priced slightly higher than TGE. Strangely, whenever someone chooses to sell immediately upon listing, they are always labeled a 'traitor'. But honestly, we all know our purpose — it's to make a profit. As long as someone claims otherwise, they are deceiving themselves.” the original text states.
The analyst added that historical data indicates that the success rate of holding altcoins for the long term is extremely low, with the probability of losses far exceeding that of sustained profit opportunities.
“Understanding the environment you are in, always prioritizing 'fund safety'. Only by securing profits can they be considered real.” Didi stated.
Research in the industry scope seems to corroborate the above conclusion. Memento Research recorded 118 token generation events (TGEs) in 2025, and the results showed that 84.7% of the tokens are currently priced below their initial listing valuations.
Post-TGE token market performance, source: Memento Research
Notably, around 65% of the tokens have seen their prices shrink by nearly half; more than half of the tokens have experienced declines of 70% or more.
The report also pointed out that high FDV (fully diluted valuation) projects performed particularly poorly. Among the 28 token issuances with initial FDVs of $1 billion and above, none have 'maintained their increase' to date.
“When reviewing the entire market according to the initial fully diluted valuation (FDV), a clear pattern emerges: the projects with the lowest costs and smallest FDVs are the only group with a relatively high survival rate (40% achieving positive returns), and their median drawdown is also relatively mild (around -26%). In contrast, other projects with FDVs above the median have been largely reassessed to rock bottom, with the median loss range approximately between -70% and -83%, and almost none have achieved positive returns.” the report noted.
Some analysts have pointed out that many crypto projects, regardless of their product maturity or actual applications, are driving valuations in the billion-dollar range. Many tokens often launch at prices that are seriously detached from their fundamentals or reasonable values, and after market forces intervene, prices quickly return to rationality, causing severe adjustments.
“Those who do not sell the majority of their tokens at the initial listing either do not understand valuations or are unaware of market logic.” he commented.
In addition to ongoing selling pressure, since 2025, investor interest in airdrops has significantly weakened due to structural issues. An increasing number of market participants believe that the current airdrop model is overly complex, has high thresholds, and is easily impacted by various vulnerabilities and abuses.
Crypto industry commentator Maran vividly illustrated this change by comparing several rounds of airdrop models. Airdrops in earlier cycles typically required simple actions, such as connecting wallets, to receive relatively substantial distribution amounts.
By 2025, many new projects introduced stricter participation standards, including longer active periods, technical requirements, registration windows, and even set up lock-up and phased release mechanisms.
“Back then, it was quite easy to receive four-digit airdrops. Now, only top players can obtain four-digit rewards.” the user added.
Another analyst pointed out that the airdrops of 2025 have 'completely failed'. Zamza Salim emphasized that witch attacks have led to multiple high-profile airdrops being abused, and even with anti-bot measures, no effectiveness has been seen.
“The airdrop methods of 2025 have already been 'overcooked'. Don't wait months for those leftover scraps, only to have 20% snatched away by bots in the end.” Salim said.
