Fundstrat founder Tom Lee recently confirmed the likelihood of Bitcoin's price rising above the $100,000 mark before the end of 2025 in a speech on CNBC. This statement appears ambitious amid the sideways movement of quotes and the decline in market momentum.
Currently, the influx of large capital is weakening, and long-term asset holders are increasing their selling volumes. Nevertheless, there is a scenario in which the expert's forecast could materialize due to the structure of market positions.
Decrease in the activity of institutional investors
The first obstacle to implementing an optimistic scenario is the dynamics of capital movement. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks the activity of large players, shows signs of weakness. From December 17 to December 23, the price of Bitcoin slightly increased, while the CMF indicator declined. Such divergence is considered a negative signal indicating a reduction in positions by major market participants.
CMF values have significantly decreased after December 21. Despite subsequent partial correction, the index remains in the negative zone. This indicates that capital outflow still prevails over inflow, making it difficult to form a sustainable upward trend.
The second negative factor is the behavior of investors holding the asset for a long time. Historically, this category of participants begins to distribute their accumulations in the late stages of the cycle.
A sharp increase in supply from large holders creates significant pressure on quotes. In conditions where institutional demand and the behavior of holders demonstrate negative dynamics, achieving new historical highs becomes difficult.
Scenario of forced liquidation of positions
Despite the above factors, Bitcoin still has the potential for sharp growth. This path is not based on the emergence of new buyers, but on an excess of margin positions to the downside.
Currently, the market shows an imbalance towards "bearish" sentiment. According to the liquidation map, the total leverage volume on short positions is about $3.41 billion. In comparison, the corresponding figure for long positions is at $2.14 billion. Accordingly, more than 60% of borrowed funds are directed against the price increase.
In a situation of low liquidity, quotes can rise due to the forced closure of sellers' positions. Bitcoin does not require new external investments if a cascade execution of stop orders occurs from participants betting on a decline. This will create automatic demand capable of quickly raising the asset's price.
Key price levels for implementing the forecast
To initiate the process of mass liquidation, Bitcoin needs to overcome several important resistance zones. The first significant area is at the level of $91,220. A consolidation above this mark will lead to the closing of low-leverage positions and improve short-term market sentiment.
The main trigger for growth is the level of $97,820. This mark has repeatedly limited the growth of the asset since mid-November. Here, the densest cluster of short position liquidations is concentrated. A breakthrough of this level will jeopardize sellers' capital of $3.41 billion.
In the event of a cascade closure, the price of Bitcoin may quickly reach the psychological mark of $100,380. Such a scenario does not require support from long-term investors or an influx of new capital. However, if the asset cannot overcome the barrier of $91,220 and continues to move sideways, investor sales will remain a dominant factor, making Tom Lee's forecast unattainable.
