25 years are about to become history, wishing my brothers a Merry Christmas. If you haven't made money in this entire 25-year market cycle, it's not necessarily because you are incapable, but because the game has completely changed.
This year, I've seen too many new brothers entering the circle, and I believe many can relate. The index is rising, narratives are flying everywhere, but you find yourself either being washed back and forth or losing more and more, only to end up being schooled by a wild chicken!
Let me directly point out the key points of this market cycle.
First, don’t use the mindset from the previous bull market.
In the past, relying on a one-sided turnaround story worked, but this cycle cannot be replicated. Now there is a trend but no tailwind, frequent fluctuations, and washing positions has become the norm. If you still fantasize about it being pulled up to the sky, the outcome is often just standing on the hillside.
Second, the first goal for beginners is not to make money, but to survive.
Many people make money by luck once and mistakenly think they've figured it out, resulting in heavier and heavier positions. Remember a few iron rules: don’t go all in, control your position, and don’t act emotionally. Only those who can keep their drawdown in check are qualified to talk about returns.
Third, if you don’t understand a coin, it’s better to miss out than to touch it.
If you can’t explain why it’s rising, who is buying, or where the logic is, then your investment is not an investment, it’s a donation. When your knowledge is insufficient, stay close to the mainstream and away from gimmicks.
Fourth, don’t chase trends.
The biggest characteristic of this cycle is the absurdly fast rotation. When the whole network is discussing something, it’s often when the main players are preparing to withdraw. For most people, building a position in the mainstream and participating in small positions in altcoins is the long-term structure.
Fifth, the rhythm is overseas, not in the friend circle.
Policies, ETFs, and institutional actions happen first overseas. By the time domestic news floods in, the market has often already completed the first phase.
This market cycle is not about guts but about understanding and rhythm. Only those who can steadily survive have the chance to reap the final dividends.
