Dogecoin is trading in a technically sensitive patch, and one on-chain/TA commentator says a single level could decide whether the memecoin resumes upside or slips into further risk. What to watch: $0.138 Crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) told followers on X on Dec. 23 that Dogecoin needs to reclaim $0.138 on three-day and weekly closes to materially improve its higher-timeframe structure. A reclaim at those timeframes would lift DOGE back above the macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 200-week simple moving average — a confluence Kevin called “a major positive.” “A reclaim of .138 for #Dogecoin on 3D-1W closes would put it back above the macro .382 and the 200W SMA,” he wrote, adding DOGE is currently “mingle[ing] around in this ‘DCA’ zone.” (DCA here refers to an area where traders may be dollar-cost averaging into positions.) Kevin has repeatedly framed $0.138 as a structural pivot rather than an intraday trigger. He warned as far back as Nov. 22 — when DOGE was trading above that level — that losing $0.138 on three-day or weekly closes would increase downside risk and weaken the broader setup, calling it “massive support.” Bitcoin remains the key driver Kevin emphasized that BTC’s trajectory will likely determine whether DOGE can hold or reclaim $0.138. He said a Dogecoin reclaim would “likely be in tandem with BTC reclaiming the $88,000–$91,000 zone,” a band he views as necessary to re-establish upside momentum. He also sounded cautious on Bitcoin in the near term, noting BTC has been rejected from its key four-hour moving averages nine times since Oct. 12 and “has not seen a day above them” since mid-September. Kevin argued that until Bitcoin clears those moving averages and reclaims the $88k–$91k band on 3-day/weekly closes, confirming a market bottom is premature and momentum still favors the bears: “If BTC overcomes those levels then you can have a different convo.” Longer-term context and the line in the sand For a broader perspective, Kevin has pointed to the $0.143–$0.127 area as an important decision zone for DOGE. In a June 2025 post he noted Dogecoin’s weekly RSI behavior since a 2022 breakout: DOGE has bounced five times after revisiting a weekly RSI below 40. He warned that failure of that weekly RSI level together with a break of the $0.143–$0.127 region “would be the line in the sand between longer term bearish price action or continued bull.” Where DOGE stands now At press time DOGE was trading around $0.13, sitting just below the key $0.138 pivot. Traders will be watching three-day and weekly closes and Bitcoin’s ability to regain higher-timeframe technicals as signals for whether Dogecoin’s higher-timeframe structure can recover. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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