Bitcoin is defending the support area around the 100-week moving average at about 85,500 USD, and the view of some analysts is that the area below 80,000 USD could become an attractive buying price if the adjustments continue.
The market context shows weak demand after the drop on 10/10, Bitcoin spot ETF cash flows largely negative, while Bitcoin volatility is said to be lower compared to previous cycles, which may both limit deep declines and reduce the likelihood of bubble-like increases.
MAIN CONTENT
Bitcoin has fallen and is testing support around the 100-week MA near 85,500 USD, coinciding with the demand zone of 84,000–85,000 USD.
Some perspectives suggest that prices below 80,000 USD could be a good buying zone if Bitcoin drops further.
The decrease in Bitcoin volatility and weak cash flow from Bitcoin spot ETFs may cause this cycle to hurt less but also be harder to explode like before.
Bitcoin is holding the 100-week MA support around 85,500 USD.
Bitcoin has confirmed the weakening scenario from the 50-week MA to the 100-week MA and is currently defending the 100-week MA as a support area, around 85,500 USD.
A discussion from 14/11 indicated the possibility that Bitcoin could defend the 50-week MA but could still drop further. This scenario has occurred, as the price retreated to the 100-week MA area.
At the time mentioned in the original content, the 100-week MA was around 85,500 USD and coincided with the demand zone of 84,000–85,000 USD from the previous month, indicating that this is a technical support cluster and noteworthy buying behavior.
Analyst Beimnet Abebe (Galaxy Trading) is the one who made the prediction in the forecast video. He also stated he would be 'willing to buy' Bitcoin if the price falls below 80,000 USD, considering the area below 80,000 USD attractive in terms of valuation/risks.
The risks of crypto are not only in price but also in the level of investor participation.
Apart from price volatility, the crypto market may be under pressure from declining participation from retail investors and levels of social interaction.
In a post on X, user InvestingLuc shared a story (which may be unverified) to explain why 'crypto is no longer cool.' The focus of the article is: whether demand from real utility is sufficient to compensate for the departure of retail investors.
'Will real-world crypto utility create enough demand to offset the prolonged decline in retail investor participation?'
– InvestingLuc, post on X
The original content also emphasizes that the level of social interaction regarding crypto is decreasing. Although institutional participation may be a positive signal for acceptance, this also raises concerns that the market is moving away from the decentralized, permissionless spirit of early Bitcoin users.
The decrease in Bitcoin volatility may lead to less shocking downturns in the cycle.
Commentary from Anthony Pompliano suggests that Bitcoin volatility may have decreased by about half compared to previous years, reducing the likelihood of extreme drops like in old cycles.
On the CNBC Squawk Box program, Anthony Pompliano (founder of Professional Capital Management) observed that Bitcoin volatility may have decreased significantly compared to before.
One accompanying factor is that cash flow from Bitcoin spot ETFs has been described as negative for most of the time since the drop on 10/10. However, the original content argues that a 70%–80% drop, characteristic of previous bear market cycles, may not occur this time due to a more institutional investor structure.
The example cited: from 126,000 USD down to 84,000 USD, the drop is 33.3%. This adjustment occurred against the backdrop of markets like US stocks (S&P 500, Nasdaq) and precious metals being near or at historical peaks, creating a striking contrast in cash flow sentiment.
The next argument is: decreasing volatility helps limit deep declines, but it can also restrict bubble-like increases. In other words, a more mature market may be 'smoother' in both directions.
On-chain indicators may not fully reflect the impact of ETFs.
Some on-chain indicators like True MVRV cited show that the cycle's heat-up might be lower than expected, partly because ETF cash flows do not go through the on-chain mechanism.
The original content states that Axel Adler Jr mentioned the True MVRV indicator on CryptoQuant rising to 2.17 in 2024 and 'cannot exceed 2' even after reaching a new peak this year.
The explanation provided is that ETF cash flows may not directly impact on-chain indicators, making it necessary to place on-chain measurements in the context of the changed market structure.
At the same time, greater participation from 'smart money' and Bitcoin becoming a more mature market could lead to lower volatility, and holders tend to take profits quicker, ready to exit positions when there are gains instead of 'holding on' longer like in previous cycles.
Conclusion: The scenario below 80,000 USD is considered a buying zone, but short-term demand remains weak.
The scenario of declining to the 100-week MA has occurred, and some views consider the area below 80,000 USD attractive, but recent demand signals still indicate that the market may lean towards a weak phase.
The forecast regarding Bitcoin potentially dropping further has been correct in the part of the drop from the 50-week MA to the 100-week MA, and the 100-week MA currently serves as support near the demand zone of 84,000–85,000 USD.
On the risk side, the original content suggests that the crypto market may be entering a declining phase, reflected in the lack of demand in recent weeks following the drop on 10/10, along with the context of Bitcoin spot ETF cash flows primarily being negative.
On the opportunity side, the perspective that 'below 80,000 USD is a good buying price' implies that investors may monitor long-term support levels (100-week MA and beyond) to build a disbursement strategy according to the scenario, rather than just reacting to short-term fluctuations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 100-week MA of Bitcoin and why is it important?
The 100-week MA is the average price over the last 100 weeks. In this context, the 100-week MA is considered long-term support around 85,500 USD and coincides with the demand zone of 84,000–85,000 USD, so it is often monitored to assess trend strength.
Why do some analysts consider below 80,000 USD as a buying zone?
According to the quoted assessment, analyst Beimnet Abebe stated he would be 'willing to buy' Bitcoin if the price is below 80,000 USD. This is a strategic viewpoint based on the price adjusting to more attractive valuation areas compared to the previous phase.
What does negative cash flow from Bitcoin spot ETFs mean?
Negative cash flow often reflects net capital outflow pressure from ETF products during that period. The original content states that cash flow from BTC spot ETFs has largely been negative since the drop on 10/10, a signal that may relate to weak short-term demand.
How will the decrease in Bitcoin volatility affect the market cycle?
Lower volatility may reduce the likelihood of 70%–80% drops like in previous cycles, but it may also limit hot bubble-like increases. This aligns with the argument that the Bitcoin market is becoming more mature and has more institutional participation.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/du-bao-bitcoin-quy-i-2026-con-hap-dan/
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