Recently, the price movements of Dogecoin (DOGE) have caused many holders to feel anxious. The token price has been under pressure, with a cumulative decline of over 12% in the past month, and a drop of about 2% in the last 24 hours. Although the overall trend remains weak, a close observation reveals that the momentum of the decline seems to be gradually slowing down.
The market chart structure still leans bearish, but a series of subtle changes on-chain may be hinting that the upcoming plot might not be that simple.
🔍 Key Signals: Speculators Retreat, Long-term Players Quietly Enter
The current price of Dogecoin is struggling near the lower boundary of a pattern known as a 'bear flag.' This means that if the critical support area of $0.124 - $0.120 is lost, there is still downside risk.
However, on-chain data reveals an intriguing phenomenon: 'speculators' in the market are rapidly exiting. According to the HODL Waves indicator, which tracks holding time, the share of Dogecoin held by investors who typically engage in short-term trading and hold for 1 week to 1 month has significantly decreased from about 7.73% at the end of November to about 2.76% on December 23.
What does this mean?
This group of investors often acts as 'amplifiers' during severe market fluctuations, easily following the crowd in panic selling, exacerbating downward trends. Their accelerated exit may actually alleviate concentrated selling pressure near key support levels, creating conditions for market stabilization.
🛡️ The other side: Long-term holders begin to 'take over'
When speculators retreat, another force quietly acts. Data shows that the share of supply held by those holding Dogecoin for 1 to 2 years has slightly increased from about 21.84% to 22.34%.
Although the increase is small, the signal is strong. These long-term investors typically choose to increase their holdings when they believe that downside risks are diminishing and value is becoming apparent. Their behavior of 'bending down to pick up chips' is a positive signal that should not be overlooked.
📉 Trading activity plummets, will history repeat itself?
Another key indicator - the 'number of spent tokens' has also greatly decreased, from about 252 million DOGE to about 94.34 million DOGE, a decline of over 60%.
This directly indicates that the transfer of on-chain tokens and trading activity have sharply cooled. Holders' willingness to sell or move assets has significantly decreased.
History does not repeat itself simply, but often has similar rhymes. In early December last year, after a similar drop in trading activity, the price of Dogecoin quickly rebounded from about $0.132 to $0.151 within three days, with an increase of nearly 15%. This does not determine that a rebound will necessarily reoccur, but at least indicates that the market's selling momentum may be exhausting rather than strengthening.
⚖️ Bull vs Bear: Key price levels determine direction
Currently, Dogecoin is at a 'crossroads'. The direction chosen in the next few trading days will be crucial.
Downside risk line: The core defense level is at $0.120. If the daily closing price effectively breaks below this level, the price may further probe down to $0.112 or even lower.
Upside turning point: The primary task is to regain stability near the resistance level of $0.133, indicating that selling pressure is beginning to ease. If the price can strongly reclaim $0.138, it may very likely mean that buyers are regaining control, and the recent decline is merely a healthy correction.
💎 Summary
In summary, the current situation of Dogecoin presents a complex game of 'technical pressure' and 'on-chain undercurrents'.
Short-term risks are still not resolved, and the price structure remains fragile, needing to closely monitor the $0.120 support. However, positive signs are accumulating: speculative positions are being cleaned out, long-term funds are tentatively entering, and market trading sentiment is cooling. If these factors align with the steadfastness of key support levels, they may build a temporary bottom for the price.
The moment of greatest market fear may also be when one needs to remain most clear-headed. For Dogecoin, it is about whether to build a bottom here or break down further; the answer will soon be revealed in the bull vs bear showdown.
