The clock is ticking – how will BTC and ETH react today after the expiration of the largest options in history?
Cryptocurrency markets are preparing today, December 26, for a historic year-end event. Over 27 billion USD in options on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are expiring on Deribit. That's over half of the total open interest on this derivatives exchange.
The huge settlement on 'Boxing Day' could be one of the largest structural changes in the history of crypto.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are preparing for a record-breaking options expiration worth 27 billion USD on the second day of Christmas.
Today's expiration of options is significantly larger than the settlements seen last week, as it is the last Friday of the month and the year. More specifically, today monthly and quarterly options (Q4 2025) are expiring.
The numbers are impressive: Bitcoin accounts for $23.6 billion in expiring options, while Ethereum accounts for $3.8 billion. Currently, Bitcoin's price hovers around $88,596, while Ethereum was priced at $2,956 at the time of writing.
Call options dominate, outnumbering puts nearly three to one. This clearly signals a bullish sentiment among traders.
The so-called 'max pain' levels are at $95,000 for BTC and $3,000 for ETH, which is where option sellers will gain the most, and buyers will lose the most.
According to Deribit, today's settlement includes over 50% of the total open interest. Meanwhile, this constitutes the largest event of its kind in the platform's history. Analysts from Deribit stated:
‘…the largest settlement in history — over half of the total OI —… Post-expiration flows will be more important than price. Watch the positioning. How will the market react to such a large settlement?’
The max pain theory, although controversial, suggests that spot prices often gravitate toward these levels as traders and institutions adjust hedges ahead of expiration.
Rolling positions currently dominates the market. Many institutions are consequently moving positions to January contracts. They do this to reduce risk, which introduces confusion in the data from short-term options.
Additionally, Greeks.live emphasizes that although put options accounted for 30% of the recent large transactions, this cannot be considered a bearish sentiment advantage. Traders taking over positions left by institutions may find favorable prices in such an environment.
Volatility is decreasing, but the expiration at the end of the year may set the tone for 2026.
Despite the scale of the event, the BTC and ETH markets remain calm. Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility (dvol) is around 42%. This metric was at 63% at the end of November. This means that sudden and sharp moves are unlikely, and the settlement may end more calmly than expected.
It is worth remembering that the consequences extend beyond the expiration itself. Post-settlement flows are likely to shape the market direction and may weaken upward resistances.
Traders are watching key price levels for BTC and ETH:
For Bitcoin, call options dominate at $100,000–116,000, while the most popular put option is $85,000.
Ethereum shows a similar trend, with a build-up of call interest above $3000.
The way institutions settle or roll positions will most likely define price movements in the first weeks of 2026.
Meanwhile, investors should be aware that such large settlements usually bring volatility as traders close or roll positions. Therefore, the decision of whether to let December put positions expire at 08:00 UTC on Deribit or extend them will determine whether the risk of declines arises from the end of the year or indicates a structural change.
When more than half of the open positions on Deribit expire in one day, Bitcoin and Ethereum face a decisive moment in the market.
Today's options settlement presents both an opportunity and a risk. It brings an exceptional combination of scale, positioning, and seasonal liquidity that may influence cryptocurrency trends at the beginning of 2026.
To read the latest cryptocurrency market analysis from BeInCrypto, click here.