I have completely liquidated my positions in Monad, accumulating losses of over a hundred thousand dollars, but I don't feel sad; rather, I am contemplating the future of the public chain ecosystem through these losses. My last long position in Linea also ended in failure, and this time betting on Monad seems equally 'worrisome'.
I must admit that the current market game has essentially evolved into a capital game: projects with capital advantages manipulate the market, driving up prices and shorting or harvesting liquidity using extreme rates.
People are no longer obsessed with ideals and long-term visions. Short-term trading only chases emotions, and fundamental analysis and so-called profit models (PE) have been cast aside.
The future is too distant, and the ultimate battle of the public chain ecosystem ultimately competes on supporting facilities and user scale. It's like building a city: Are there pioneers coming to pioneer, are there technical talents and enterprises settling in, are the city's natural resources superior, and do government policies provide strong support and subsidies?
For example, are natural resources abundant—fertile land (high performance), accessible water sources (low cost), and well-connected (good compatibility)?
"Will the 'city lord' (public chain foundation and investors) be willing to spend a fortune to support long-term, build roads and bridges, and distribute subsidies?"
Throughout history, cities have risen to prominence, and dynasties have changed; has this ever been rare?
In the prosperous Tang dynasty, Chang'an was illuminated with countless lights; in the Song dynasty, Bianjing was bustling with merchants; Yuan, Ming, and Qing each had their own brilliance, but no dynasty could last forever.
Technology is like a spring tide, culture is like a river, mastering the power structure of production materials and absolute capital is constantly changing.
Historically, there are many cases where cities have surpassed each other, and the later dynasties replace the earlier ones; nothing is permanent. Tang, Song, Yuan, Ming, and Qing each had their themes and characteristics, and with technological progress and cultural evolution, the social structure mastering production materials and absolute capital is also changing.
Truly rapidly developing cities often possess advantages such as the gathering of high-tech talents, substantial government subsidies, abundant natural resources, international vision, and favorable coastal locations, along with well-developed infrastructure in education, healthcare, entertainment, real estate, tourism, and a stable resident population.
Like Shenzhen, basking in the east wind of reform and opening up (timing), adjacent to the Hong Kong port (location), attracting talents from all over the world and substantial policy dividends (people), in just forty years, it transformed from a fishing village into an international metropolis.
Silicon Valley, where silicon was the core material for making transistors and integrated circuits at that time, hence 'silicon' is used to refer to the high-tech industry. 'Valley' refers to the Santa Clara Valley in the southern part of the San Francisco Bay Area in California, which is indeed a valley geographically. In the mid-20th century, this area gathered a large number of semiconductor, chip, and electronic industry companies in Silicon Valley, accumulating a large number of high-end talents. With continuous support from venture capital, the infrastructure for education, healthcare, entertainment, and real estate has been continuously improved, ultimately becoming a global innovation sanctuary. The term Silicon Valley has also become a symbol of high technology and innovation, a hub for entrepreneurial culture and venture capital, and a gathering place for global tech companies and talents.
Public chains are no different.
A prosperous on-chain city requires DeFi as the financial lifeblood, DEX as the bustling market, Launchpad as the cradle of entrepreneurship, Meme as the street fireworks, prediction markets as gambling teahouses, and game socializing as the vibrant nightlife...
None can be missing; only then can the flywheel rotate, retaining residents, attracting distant guests, and nurturing real vitality.
Recently, the debate about Solana and BSC has also been extremely intense. I believe that in the end, it is like the difference in 'play order' in urban planning theory:
When your opponent has no cards left to play and you still have infinite backup, the result is self-evident.
Power, resources, money, people, natural conditions, international status—these decisive factors are right in front of us, and the answer is actually very simple.
It can be seen that beyond short-term pump and dump tokens, to build an excellent public chain, what is really needed is still timing, location, and people, accumulating thick and thin is also the answer for public chains.
No solitary city can stand proudly for a thousand years without decline; the laggards will inevitably be shattered against the shore by the waves of history.
