The price of Bitcoin has fallen by nearly 2% in the last 24 hours, and it has dropped by about 3% compared to yesterday's peak. On the surface, the price shows no significant movement.
However, beneath the chart, especially on-chain, changes have appeared for the first time in nearly three months. Additionally, there was one more change this week. While these two changes do not guarantee a rally ahead of 2026, they could potentially serve as the starting point for the rally.
Momentum change starts… need evidence
Two signals appeared simultaneously. They are separate, but timing is important.
The first is the On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV measures buying and selling pressure through volume. Between December 21 and December 26, the Bitcoin price showed an upward trend. However, the OBV did not show the same trend. Instead, it recorded a lower high. This is a bearish OBV divergence. The reason for the price failing to break through on December 26 (on this day a long wick occurred) is explained by the volume not supporting a slight price rise.
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This week's OBV has broken above the trendline connecting the lower highs. This breakout suggests that strong buying pressure is forming. The signal will be confirmed only if the OBV records a higher high above 1.58 million. In that case, the Bitcoin price may finally react. That situation has not occurred yet.
The second signal comes from the Hodler net position change indicator. This indicator tracks wallets that hold for more than 155 days. These are the slowest-moving participants in the market.
On December 26, this indicator switched to positive for the first time since the end of September. Long-term holders added 3,783.8 BTC. They are not buying for short-term profits. They buy with conviction. This conviction has appeared for the first time in nearly three months.
The rebound rally requires the role of both sides. OBV must continue, and holders must steadily add purchases. One or the other is not enough.
End of year or 2026 decision Bitcoin price map
The Bitcoin price still needs more progress. The price range tells the real story.
Bitcoin has failed to recover $90,840 for almost two weeks. This range blocked the price on December 12 and has prevented all attempts since then. Until this range is broken, all rebounds feel temporary.
The first actual rebound rally checkpoint above $90,840 is around $97,190. The Bitcoin price fell below this level on November 14.
If the rally continues, the next levels are $101,710 and $107,470.
On the downside, $86,915 is the support level. This price has been maintained since December 19. If this support level breaks, there is a possibility of falling to $80,560. The risk increases due to low liquidity at the end of the year. As of now, looking at the positioning of long-term investors, the Bitcoin price is heading towards $90,840, and if the support at $86,910 is maintained, it may attempt a rebound beyond that.
