Woke up, and surprisingly many people viewed last night’s post, so I have to continue to seize the moment and post something again.

Let's start with the simplest one, 'Moving Average Effectiveness'. In Figure 1, the ma38 touched many times during the period when Bitcoin dropped from 98000 to 74457, without breaking through, all were stopped. So if one day it breaks through, you need to pay attention; you can use ma38 for stop-loss, which would be a stop-loss of one or two points. This usually has a good win rate and a large risk-reward ratio.

Figure 2 is similar; after Bitcoin dropped from 110000, it has touched ma38 several times. The current price is 88907, and if it breaks through this in the next few days, I will open a long position and finally ride a wave of rebound. Note that generally speaking, large market cap coins usually do not break through or fall below a certain moving average on the first touch. The more times it touches, the greater the probability of a breakthrough next time; of course, it’s not 100% (prepare mentally for the coin to suddenly drop to zero).

Currently, Crv has also broken through ma38 and the downward trend line. There’s no doubt that buying it here has a higher risk-reward ratio, but the win rate might not be great; this coin is quite trashy, so I don’t dare to buy too much, just playing with a small position.