Kenzoy

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This is my commonly used moving average set. I most often use ma540, which is equivalent to the 3-day line of ma180, so I rarely look at the weekly or monthly lines. 540 candles are enough to capture a trend completely. Occasionally, I will check for divergences on the weekly and monthly lines.

In the last post, I mentioned that I would go long when breaking above ma38 to catch a rebound. When the medium to long-term moving averages are all pressing down, and when breaking above 38 towards 60, the first time it touches ma60, I will close my long position, around 93700, but it might break through to 94000. However, there is a possibility of missing the sell, then so be it. With a bunch of moving averages pressing down, can your coins still reach the sky?

As time goes by, the medium to long-term moving averages will press down, eventually forming a bearish divergence offensive pattern. Refer to Figure 2; the expectation is within one to two months, oscillating until January or February of next year. At that time, there will be a catastrophic crash, leading to widespread devastation, and nothing like ancient giant whales with low leverage will work; they will all perish, buying more leads to more losses. What you can do now is to protect your principal and not move it around, waiting for the coins to drop below 50,000, and for sol to go below 30 to buy the dip. It should be able to double or triple, and it’s best not to use leverage.

The slap in the face has come, just yesterday I posted saying to fully short, today I am going long on BNB with $1.5 million $BNB , and may increase to $3 million in a few days.

There’s no choice, currently the only large coin that can still be played in this circle is BNB, and it’s still in a bullish arrangement, just adjusting the short and medium-term moving averages a bit. So as long as I see signs of a breakthrough in BNB, I will still chase it; wear and tear doesn’t matter, if it really breaks out, this level of wear and tear cost is still acceptable.

When it comes to short and medium-term chasing and cutting positions, I won’t change my expression; don’t trust what the gamblers say too much, and don’t feel bad about the money. The main reason why I couldn’t hold onto the long position in BNB before is that Bitcoin and Ethereum have already gone bad, and I was afraid that if it really crashed, it would drag BNB down with it, so when it drops, I still need to close my position first to avoid the storm.

Here, the rise of Bitcoin is likely just a rebound. If we are to have a bull market next year, and it follows the pattern in Chart 1, then I will fully go long at that time. It’s not just about breaking 106,000, but also about holding above that level and turning all the moving averages upwards over time.

If Bitcoin continues to fool around at the time of the US stock market opening tonight and falls back, I might continue to reduce my long position in BNB, and we'll see then.

This is how the operation goes, it may not be suitable for others, but I have been playing this way for 5 years, and although I haven’t earned much, it’s enough to maintain a decent life.

Someone in the comments asked, what if next year is not a bear market, but a bull market instead?

Moving averages are actually lagging indicators. When the moving averages confirm that a bull or bear market is emerging, like now with Bitcoin breaking below all moving averages, I will definitely see a bear market.

If, as this fellow said, it turns into a bull market, then I need to see you properly reclaim all the moving averages, with the price breaking through the resistance level of all moving averages. This would mean that all moving averages will start to turn upwards, forming a bullish divergence, and at that time I would go long. Rather than guessing now whether next year will be a big bull market, I see no signs of a bull.

Also, there was a news today that E Lihua said that the Americans are going to inject liquidity, and it’s going to be a bull market. With so much liquidity, why is the market still in such a bad state? Are there bad people among the crowd? With so much liquidity, you should drive it up, then I would go long.

Being objective about the market, I will judge the major trend based on the movements of the moving averages. In the short term, I will use MACD in conjunction with short-term moving averages to make some trades. Most of the time, we are making money from the trend. $SOL

Fully reversing. Not making a profit on the last cent.

No more naked longs, at a minimum, will only go long to hedge short positions. Also not planning to take any rebounds, and there may not even be a rebound. The next steps include only 3 actions: adding shorts on rebounds, adding longs based on mood daily, and adding shorts when it breaks down.

Sol is weaker than Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB, the future can be deceiving! Sending it back to $20, not ruling out 20 RMB. $SOL

I laughed so hard, looking back at this chat history from before, I just realized that my win rate was only 11% in 2023, but a few days ago it rose to 28%, so I guess that's progress. 😅

Congo decisively cut losses $BTC and bnb, the brothers who commented on following orders reminded me of a past event. There used to be a friend who played the secondary market with me. At the red circle position, he followed me to short Ethereum, as the moving averages were quite dense. I had stopped out twice or three times, and later I said it was coming, I shorted strongly, but he didn't have the courage to follow.

The second season of Jianlai has been released, and Chen Pingan directly used the life-saving sword energy 'Jianlai' from Sword Mom, it was so cool. Why didn't he ask A Liang for help? The phrase I told him, 'Don't seek externally,' really resonated deeply.

This thing is like trading; you must have the determination to make your trading successful, be resolute in learning. Following others has no future; you have to rely on yourself, learn by yourself, trade by yourself, and then bear the losses yourself to gain experience.

Do not count on my real account for your learning. I lost on my real account and gained experience; if you follow me and lose, you won't learn anything. You will only conclude: this person is really bad, how did they make so much money?

When you trade more, you will suddenly understand; all previous gains and losses will become your profound internal strength at that moment.

Even driving requires a driver's license; do you need a teacher to teach you how to drive?

Who is winning in this market?? $BTC

I just reduced my BNB position by 1 million dollars and switched to Bitcoin. I shouldn't be able to influence such a large market like BNB; whether it goes up or down is its own business.

Yesterday, there was a funny comment saying I'm a supporter of ZEC. The ZEC market maker hasn't given me any money, but I guess they have given me 270,000 dollars, thank you market maker.

I chase the rise, cut losses, and even chase after cutting losses, cutting after chasing, without any psychological burden. So be cautious when following trades...

Short-term trading is essentially about chasing rises and cutting losses.

If there's no market movement, I will take a look at a 4-hour level rebound. Right now, it's like licking blood on a knife's edge; I will retreat anytime if things go wrong. I'm scared it might be halved in the future. $BTC

I'm scared of you guys, the risk of shorting is quite large, if you don't run fast enough, you might get trapped or face a liquidation, especially when shorting a fake coin.

So I will only short on the big right side, completely breaking down, and then find a position with a large risk-reward ratio before I short, but it's not guaranteed to win. I will try to minimize posting shorting analyses in the future, as many people can't understand.

If it doesn't work out, I'm like the guy in Figure 2, bibi summarized it pretty well.

Not only shorting BNB anymore, but also opened long positions in the coin, currently the overall position is about 1.5 times, which is satisfactory. If the coin goes to around 93,000, I might run away.

My contract earnings are hanging in the air. Whether it's a consolidation top or a fuel-up for a breakthrough depends on whether my project team is doing a good job. There is a possibility of a breakthrough failure, and we cannot rule out the possibility of a bear market next year as expected, with significant earnings breakthroughs.

Looking at the bear market next year is the current expectation, because the medium to long-term moving averages indicate that Bitcoin needs to release some pressure, consolidating at the bottom for a year or two before we see a bull market.
However, if the trend does not go as I expect and instead rebounds directly, stabilizing above all moving averages, then we will reassess at that time. The daily prices of moving averages will change; we will observe and act accordingly.

In fact, it's similar to playing with coins. Even if a certain coin follows the same earnings trend as mine, it could still be a trap. So when you ask me if a certain coin will rise, I will generally respond that it's possible, but I can't rule it out, because I really don't know. I can't guarantee that a coin will definitely rise; the only thing I can control is managing my position and setting strict stop-losses to protect my principal and keep the green mountains intact.

Bnb, let's go!

Oh my, thank you to my dear Curt for sending 5 usdt, thank you thank you😍

I will immediately go have a nice breakfast.

I estimate that I will fill up my bnb position this afternoon. I always get affected in the morning, I'm scared.

Some people in the comments say that I sell flying zec or something. Although I feel a bit annoyed inside, this feeling basically passes in a flash. There are always opportunities, as long as the principal is there, making money is just a matter of time.

Let’s analyze the large short position on the right side of zec. I will not try to catch the top of zec, like touching it at 600 or 700, that’s impossible. I won’t do that.
If by any chance it goes to around 1000, then it’s not my concern. I don’t have that kind of mindset; it’s not money I can earn, nor is it money I can afford to lose.

The expectation for Zec is that it will oscillate and build a top here for about two months. The daily MA120 moving average will reach around 450 dollars, and when it falls below MA120, combined with two or three segments of MACD divergence, then I can set a stop loss against the daily middle track and go short; that still sounds pretty good.

But this is just an expectation. If it doesn’t go as expected, then I won’t short it.

The coin has no value, so there will always be cycles of bull and bear, unlike US stocks which are always bullish. Shorting is to buy cheaper chips to go long.

What do the teachers say, can this time's bnb long position reach the other shore?

If someone wants to take advantage of the bear market, they should quickly learn about moving averages. The next bullish market after a drop to 50,000 will be just the right time to use it.

When I first watched Lei Gong's video, I was completely baffled. It was too simple and straightforward for someone like me who had lost money for years. I made a firm decision to master moving averages; I watched each of his moving average teaching videos more than 10 times, aiming to completely transform into him.

There are several important points that need to be focused on: 1. Discount price, 2. Dense moving averages. Mastering these two, you can basically make steady long-term profits.

Generally speaking, a major trend or bull market will follow these patterns. Chart 3

After the bear market of Bitcoin arrived in 2022, there was a crash, a comprehensive bearish divergence, then consolidation, and then the price began to strengthen. The price broke through most moving averages, and when the price is above the discount price, the moving averages will turn upward and become dense at a certain position. The key point is that dense moving averages indicate the end of a consolidation phase; an upward movement signifies a significant rise, while a downward movement signifies a major crash. The costs for everyone in the short, medium, and long term are concentrated in a certain price range, and as soon as it is broken, a big market movement will occur. Chart 3 shows a breakout upwards; buying at 28000, breaking below ma540 completely ends the trend, and the price at 90,000 dollars, from 28,000 to 90,000 dollars, isn’t that a profit?

By thoroughly understanding each of Lei Gong's videos and relying on moving averages for stop-losses, the risk-reward ratio naturally emerges.

Everyone is playing in the square, this is not Twitter or Weibo, just bring out the mule or horse and have fun.

Two rules for real trading: 1. Only show the return rate without showing the amount, treat it as a 10u war god. 2. If someone can put up real trading but only shows screenshots, just treat them as a thief of images.

If you can be deceived by this, it can only be said that this life has been wasted.

Bnb seems to be stabilizing a bit, if it can break through ma38 in a few days, I will continue to follow. It has touched ma256 four times without dropping below it, and the rebound will be quite strong.

This is an expectation, just putting a note here, if it breaks through later, I will follow, it looks like it can return to 1000

Woke up, and surprisingly many people viewed last night’s post, so I have to continue to seize the moment and post something again.

Let's start with the simplest one, 'Moving Average Effectiveness'. In Figure 1, the ma38 touched many times during the period when Bitcoin dropped from 98000 to 74457, without breaking through, all were stopped. So if one day it breaks through, you need to pay attention; you can use ma38 for stop-loss, which would be a stop-loss of one or two points. This usually has a good win rate and a large risk-reward ratio.

Figure 2 is similar; after Bitcoin dropped from 110000, it has touched ma38 several times. The current price is 88907, and if it breaks through this in the next few days, I will open a long position and finally ride a wave of rebound. Note that generally speaking, large market cap coins usually do not break through or fall below a certain moving average on the first touch. The more times it touches, the greater the probability of a breakthrough next time; of course, it’s not 100% (prepare mentally for the coin to suddenly drop to zero).

Currently, Crv has also broken through ma38 and the downward trend line. There’s no doubt that buying it here has a higher risk-reward ratio, but the win rate might not be great; this coin is quite trashy, so I don’t dare to buy too much, just playing with a small position.

Under this terrible market, ZEC directly rose nearly 20 points in one day, the increase is too fast. Originally expected to slowly rise to 600, just opened a long position this morning, directly profited 15 points in the evening, this must be cleared directly.

CRV seems to have broken through the downtrend line, a small position buy to take a gamble.

Don't increase the price, it's almost sold out, it's going to sell out quickly, there are only a few sesame stocks left.

While making money today and gaining attention, I might say a bit more, but in a few days when I lose money, no one will pay attention to me. The following only represents my personal operations and views.

There is a taboo that most people should avoid, which is trying to pick the top. You might make some profits and sell in batches, but you can't just see something rising and try to pick its top; this is likely to lead to a total loss in the long run.

Lu Xun once said: If you know where the danger is, and you don't go there, can't you avoid it?

For example, on the 11th, a group friend asked me if I could short, and when I saw that this trash was still in a bullish divergence, I definitely wouldn't short it. Even this junk imitation with a market maker might continue to rise, but I wouldn't chase it without a good entry point.

(Bullish divergence means that the short-term moving average is above the medium-term moving average, and the medium-term moving average is above the long-term moving average.)

On the 11th, it was $0.33, and a few days ago it peaked at $0.76; shorting it basically leads to losses. Also, with coins in bullish divergence, you can't find a stop loss. I often say: As long as you don't try to catch the bottom and short at the top, you can avoid about 80% of losses. These days I've also been trying to find the bottom for Dash and learned a lesson; even if I know it, I might not be able to do it. Fortunately, my Dash position isn't large.