Bitcoin’s pullback deepens: could a long bear be coming? Bitcoin is in the midst of one of its sharpest corrections in recent memory. The largest cryptocurrency tumbled from an all-time high of $126,000 to below $100,000 — a level it first surpassed about a year ago — and was trading near $87,000 at press time. Market sentiment is fragile, and a number of technical tools are now pointing toward continued downside risk. Fractal indicator signals extended bearish phase One of the most-watched gauges, the Bitcoin Repeating Cycle indicator, has flipped into bearish territory after correctly flagging the market peak on 10 October. The model’s pattern suggests the current bearish phase could persist until around 16 October 2026, according to Alphractal. Researcher João Wedson, who works with the fractal model, projects a potential bottom in the $40,000–$45,000 range — but he stresses this is not a deterministic price call. As he put it, “This is not a fixed rule, nor a deterministic price forecast. It represents a fractal rhyme of market cycles—something Bitcoin has historically respected more often than ignored.” How severe could the fall be? At present, Bitcoin’s drop from $126,000 represents roughly a 32% retracement — a decline that sits squarely inside the historical range for minor corrective phases (typically around 35%). By contrast, the 2021 cycle produced an unusually deep correction that erased roughly 77% from Bitcoin’s $69,000 peak. If the fractal projection is right and BTC falls to the $40k–$45k band, that would imply a 64%–68% drawdown — more in line with a major cycle correction than a routine pullback. Off-chain and momentum indicators paint a different picture Not all signals support a dramatic unwind. Off-chain accumulation/distribution trends show no obvious signs of aggressive distribution today. During the 2021 descent, off-chain traded volume plunged from about 9.8 million BTC to roughly 4 million BTC; by comparison, current traded volume has barely moved, edging from 17.63 million BTC to 17.52 million BTC, a shift that does not confirm widespread selling (source: TradingView). Momentum indicators are mixed as well. The MACD is still flashing bearish, but its histogram has softened from deep red to lighter shades — a technical transition that has historically preceded recoveries. Macro and institutional flows could blunt a deep bear Broader market structure has also changed since 2021. Institutional and sovereign involvement in Bitcoin has accelerated: spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in major markets like the U.S. and Hong Kong, and U.S. institutional demand alone is estimated to have funneled some $116.58 billion into crypto. At the same time, global M2 money supply has swelled to around $147 trillion — an expansion that, historically, tends to find its way into risk assets and could provide structural support for Bitcoin’s price. What this means for traders and investors Putting it together, the path ahead is a tale of two narratives: the fractal model warns a prolonged bear could push BTC back toward $40k–$45k, while on-chain and macro indicators offer reasons to believe a severe distribution-driven collapse is less likely. Traders should weigh both scenarios, monitor volume and momentum closely, and keep an eye on institutional flows that could shift the balance. Disclaimer: AMBCrypto's content is meant to be informational in nature and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Trading, buying or selling cryptocurrencies should be considered a high-risk investment and every reader is advised to do their own research before making any decisions. © 2025 AMBCrypto Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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