The current U.S. stock market can be summed up in one sentence: too much to handle, with extremely high consistency.

The S&P 500 is expected to rise for 8 consecutive months, marking the longest streak since 2018;

Goldman's stock sentiment indicator shows—

retail, institutional, and overseas investors' stock positions have surged to the highest level in the past year, and it is the first time since December 2020 that it has entered the 'overextension zone'.

Looking at leverage:

Hedge funds' total leverage + net leverage are both >90%, regardless of the cycle used for measurement, which is historically high, indicating in one sentence:

👉

All possible leverage has been utilized.

Bank of America's global fund manager survey is even more exaggerated:

Investor sentiment has reached its highest level since July 2021,

and cash positions are at a historical low of only 3.3%—

nearly out of bullets.

Meanwhile, Wall Street investment banks are collectively bullish on the U.S. stock market in 2026, with almost no opposing voices;

the fear-greed index has returned to 56 (greed zone).

📌

What does this mean?

This does not necessarily indicate an immediate peak,

but it implies:

Expectations are fully exhausted

Risk compensation is decreasing

Once an 'unexpected' event occurs, the impact will be amplified

Moreover, it is worth noting:

👉

BTC has already started to decouple from the U.S. stock market.

When the internal differentiation of risk assets begins,

it is often not the starting point of a new round of consistent upward movement,

but rather a precursor to a shift in rhythm.

So the question is not:

Should we continue to be bullish?

But rather:

👉

When everyone is optimistic, do you have an exit strategy for your positions?

The truly dangerous phase of the market

has never been panic,

but rather when consensus, crowding, full positions, and leverage occur.

Optimism is fine,

but do not be blind;

Participation is okay,

but keep some backup.