加密小蝶

Today the new alpha launched by bn with this $SPACE is quite impressive,

After launching on Alpha, it directly went on to the contract,

This is the true bn lineage,

It's amazing, the only Musk concept in alpha

1️⃣ Project

$SPACE ｜Low Earth Orbit Satellite DePIN, creating a censorship-resistant global network, monthly fee 1–2 USD, narrative comparable to Starlink + DePIN.

2️⃣ Core Data

Total Supply: 21 Billion

Initial Circulation: 10.25%

Financing: 3 Million USD

TGE Selling Pressure: ≈ 2.25%

Alpha: Expected 1% first come first served

3️⃣ Token Structure Commentary

Institution/Team locks for a long time (12M+ linear)

✅ Airdrop divided into two seasons, short-term selling pressure controllable

⚠️ Liquidity 9% TGE fully released, the point of contention is here

4️⃣ Cost & Pricing

Institutional Cost ≈ 0.00095U

If pool price is 0.004U:
Circulating Market Cap ≈ 8.6 Million
FDV ≈ 84 Million (leans towards narrative)

5️⃣ Trading Perspective Conclusion

Alpha Players: Competing speed

Short-term: Watch emotions + liquidity

Medium-term: Whether DePIN + satellite narrative will ferment

Only Trump would dare to play like this.

Major bad news is usually released on weekends and during U.S. stock market holidays, essentially protecting the U.S. stock market while sacrificing external factors.

If you want to compete with Trump, the first step must be to abolish the 'tariff' trump card, but the reality is that Europe and the U.S. simply do not have this negotiation chip.

The Greenland issue is not about emotions; it's a strategic bargaining chip at the level of mid-term elections.

The U.S. attitude is very clear: it must be achieved.
From here on, there will only be repeated pulls and tugs until the plot reaches the most favorable position for Trump.

The core of this drama is four words:
Only I am supreme.

Empty-handed to catch a wolf,
Others know they are being led,
But can only grit their teeth and cooperate to finish the show.

Today's Web3 Information Gap:

1. US-EU Tariff War? $BTC → $91,910, $ETH → $3,177, $BNB → $901, $SOL → $130

2. Want to win Musk's $1 million prize? How to restart your life in 1 day with 150 million reads, meme coin $1 peaked at 12m, 228x, the top earner made $190,000

3. A certain whale on Polymarket went from losing $6.8 million to making $10.5 million, a single bet of $3 million, this can't just be thrown away, is it a hedge?

4. The hamburger restaurant Steak ’n Shake has increased its reserves to $10 million since accepting Bitcoin payments, accepting $BTC payments will become mainstream

5. The savior of the bear market! Michael Saylor hints to buy, buy, buy, releasing the orange dot chart again, how many hundreds of millions to buy this time?

To be honest, BSC is actually the easiest chain for retail investors to make money on,

regardless of how many people keep ranting about it.

Take the recent 'Damn, it's here' as an example,

the story sounds ridiculous,

but the question is—

didn't everyone see it when the market cap was still in the tens of thousands?

Seeing ≠ not knowing,

it's just that people thought it was absurd, looked down on it, and didn't act.

But on SOL,

by the time you realize 'this thing might actually have potential,'

the market cap is usually already in the millions.

We're in the market to make money,

not to be moral judges or write movie reviews.

Critics don't pay your salary.

The chain that makes you money

is the good chain.

#BSC On-chain Hot Narratives 1.9

1、#LifeKLine

A user developed a website using K-line charts to display life fortune

CA: 0x1a1e69f1e6182e2f8b9e8987e83c016ac9444444

2、#Mom

He Yi tweeted "Old men are calling me mom"

CA: 0x87d87671aefb97610390cd7fdbb4281c3f734444

2、#DaoMaDaoMa

The TikTok dance "DaoMaDaoMa" with 5.2 billion views

CA: 0x1a3b376453fc97dee6799b0e998a1a0e24364444

BTC / ETH Market Review & Intraday Strategy

BTC

Yesterday's pullback exceeded expectations, focusing on key support at 90000–91000.

Waiting for stability on the 4H, short-term aiming for a rebound, long-term still biased bearish.

Looking at the daily volume, only if it stabilizes after a pullback does it have participation value;

The weekly has entered a rebound phase, but the rebound will still primarily favor short positions.

Intraday Range:
Support: 90000–90500
Resistance: 92000–93000

Key to watch is whether volume expands; do not chase without volume.

ETH

Following BTC's pullback, but the volume did not increase, still has pullback demand.

The daily also waits for volume confirmation, long-term is bearish, short-term can follow if stable.

Intraday Range:
Support: 3070–3120
Resistance: 3250–3300

Altcoins
Overall liquidity remains weak, continue to observe.

Alpha's point requirement is too high, has paused point accumulation, waiting for rule adjustments.

Summary in one sentence:
Rebound ≠ reversal; only do confirmed trades before the structure changes. #BTC Trend Analysis

Have you noticed that the ecosystems of SOL and BSC are completely different?

On SOL:

Pools don't interfere with each other; when a new hot topic emerges, old pools can still continue trading,

attention is分散 (dispersed), and funds rotate.

But BSC is completely the opposite.

As soon as a new hot topic appears,

old pools immediately lose liquidity and die instantly,

rarely allowing room for secondary trading.

If we must point out a strength of BSC,

it's that the mechanics are extremely simple and straightforward.

Whether it's bundling, CTO, or bottom stuffing eggs,

100k dollars can genuinely take away several ten thousand dollars.

But on SOL,

without several million in market cap,

it's basically impossible to extract several ten thousand dollars.

In one sentence:

BSC is about speed and execution; SOL is about insight and patience.

Silver prices have risen again to over 78🔪 per ounce, approaching a historic high.

Recent reflections from my review

The biggest realization during this time can be summed up in one sentence:

Doing less on the right side makes it really easy to make foolish mistakes.

Many of my losing trades are essentially due to FOMO chasing highs,

only to find that I can't hold on, immediately cutting losses.

In the current liquidity environment,

the win rate is low, the odds are low, and it consumes a lot of energy,

and there aren't enough buyers for the second stage.

Moving forward, I need to deliberately reduce these kinds of trades.

The fear of missing out also requires a change in mindset.

It's not just about asking, 'Why did I buy, why did I sell,'

but also asking:

'Why didn't I buy?'

Missing out isn't scary,

but randomly buying, becoming distracted, and being led by the market is scary.

From now on, I'd rather miss out than jump in recklessly.

Selling is still my weak point.

Especially the first trade,

I get scared of losses at the first pullback and tend to take profits too early.

This needs continued practice,

selling can't rely on feelings, only on a plan.

One last point: I need to believe in myself more.

What I believe in should be held onto,

even if no one is coming in or believing at the moment.

The recent stocks I mentioned were called out when they had a market value of just a few thousand,

and at that time, no one paid attention,

when the market finally reacted, I could only watch others make tenfold profits.

Missing out isn't a matter of luck,

most of the time it's because I don't believe in myself first.

Take it slow,

the most important thing right now isn't how fast I can earn,

but not to be repeatedly educated by emotions.

#SOL On-chain Hot Narrative · 1.5

1️⃣ $MEME

Narrative: Can a meme really change a life?

CA: 85ymfLLfeyYA9wV1PorpLBW1pprWfPgnm3cMEx5ppump

→ Strong emotional attributes, attention-driven, suitable for fast-paced games

2️⃣ $MIA

Narrative: Virtual cat girl Mia Ko

CA: FyPDfX92B4uEk4zZouy96d1Kk1LgnCznBpzAFSsZpump

→ ACG + virtual character direction, small market cap elasticity

3️⃣ $MOON

Narrative: Space cow landing on the moon (Moon narrative)

CA: DZ1fC3aiobpYEe621jaCHX4Dr83n4Pv44fiikZY2pump

→ Very early stage, simple and straightforward narrative, risks and rewards coexist

🔎 Supplementary Notes

Only for tracking on-chain narratives and information organization

Participants must control their positions, first understand the narrative, then observe the structure

The smaller the market cap, the stronger the dependence on sentiment and liquidity

《Dog Operation Process: The Practical Framework to Minimize Loss Probability》

If you are a top trader, a core member of a project, or one of the very few who can control the market from the start, this set is not suitable for you.
For most ordinary on-chain players, if you can't even get the first step right, losses are almost inevitable.

1. First, understand the narrative, then talk about participation
Especially for the SOL chain dog tokens, many targets have narratives that are highly localized and contextualized, which can easily confuse newcomers.
Basic information acquisition can be done in three steps:

1️⃣ Ask AI / Search Engine
Directly ask:
"What does 'XXX' mean? I am Chinese, please explain in simple language."

2️⃣ Analyze Information Sources
• Look at community discussions
• Search CA
• Translate English content directly into Chinese and read it aloud
The goal is not to pretend to understand, but to confirm that you truly grasp what is being said.

3️⃣ Compare with Daily Hot Topics
• Is it aligned with the main narrative of the day on-chain?
• Is it one of the “derivative plays under the day's theme”?

👉 The conclusion is simple:
Every day there are themes on-chain; participating in line with the theme naturally increases your win rate.
If you can't even understand the narrative, just skip it.
Don’t have the mentality of “What if I miss out while I’m researching?”
True golden dogs are rare, and your luck isn’t at that level yet.

2. If the narrative is correct, you also need to check if the market is right
A correct narrative ≠ worth buying.
You must confirm the following points:
• Under this narrative, are there already OG targets?
• Is it currently the one that is performing the best?
• Is the number of holders and market cap within a reasonable range?
• Are there obvious problems with the pool, holding structure, or basic token information?
👉 In summary:
If the narrative is right but the market structure is wrong, it’s equivalent to handing over money directly.

3. No matter how good the target is, you must wait for the right position
• Don’t chase highs
• Don’t FOMO
• Don’t get overly excited because of “fear of missing out”
Good dogs will provide a position, not just emotions.
If the market cap isn’t suitable, it’s better to miss out than to force a trade.

4. Newbie Risk Control Rule: Double Your Money Before Taking Out Principal
If you are immature in judging market cap space and emotional cycles:
• Doubling = Must take out principal
• How to play later, use profits to gamble
This is one of the key actions for newbies to survive.

Final Summary
Playing dog tokens is not about who has the biggest courage, but about who:
• Understands the narrative
• Can read the market
• Can stick to the discipline

I’ve already opened the chat room—come and join!I’ve already opened the chat room—come and join!

Say something more realistic.

When your disposable funds are less than 10,000 USD, frequently researching contracts, high-volatility altcoins, and get-rich-quick narratives does not inherently increase your win rate, but rather amplifies uncontrollable risks.
The issue is not that you are not working hard, but rather:

The scale of your principal determines the number of trials you can afford.

I have seen too many common paths of beginners in the market:

Chasing news and emotional highs

Relying on others' opinions rather than a system

Not cashing out profits, not stopping losses

The only core goal in the small capital phase

Is not to double, not to outperform others, but to:

Survive and have a replicable growth path.

Not blowing up, not going to zero, and having a sustainable upward account curve,

is the only qualification to talk about scale and efficiency.

Step One: Choose Coins—Only accept "trend confirmation signals"

The only condition: Daily MACD golden cross.

This represents: trend initiation, not a rebound from oversold levels.

The core understanding can be summarized in one sentence:

Small capital does not take responsibility for judging bottoms, only for following trends.

Step Two: Hold—Use one line to resolve all doubts

Daily moving averages (like MA20 / MA30).

Price above the line: hold

Closing price below the line: exit

No discussions, no predictions, no "feelings."

This is not a trading skill, but a risk control bottom line.

If you can't even execute this one line,

then the losses are not the market's problem.

Step Three: Enter and Exit—Only look at price and volume

Necessary conditions for effective entry:

Price above the moving average

Volume breaking through synchronously

No upward movement without accompanying volume,

the success probability is extremely low.

Profit-taking must be rule-based:

Up about 40%: cash out in batches

Up about 80%: continue to reduce positions

Breaking below the moving average: clear remaining positions

Do not pursue selling at the highest point,

Stable cashing out > extreme gambling.

Step Four: Stop Loss—Unconditional execution

The rule is only one sentence:

If the closing price falls below the moving average, exit the next trading day.

Not "observe again,"

Not "it might be a false breakout,"

Much less "I think it can still rebound."

In summary:

Accept that you are an ordinary trader, exchange discipline for probability.

If you want to grow, follow the rules;

If you want to gamble, accept the results.

#SOL
On-chain hot narrative 12.31
1、 $PFP

Pump fun pepe

CA:
5TfqNKZbn9AnNtzq8bbkyhKgcPGTfNDc9wNzFrTBpump

2、
$Shaw
@shawmakesmagic
Founder of Eliza Labs

CA:
HdZh1mUvCVJzHfTFaJJxZJFENhiFAkyiXLA5iZZTpump

3、2026

Countdown to 2026

trade.padre.gg/rk/joshua

The current U.S. stock market can be summed up in one sentence: too much to handle, with extremely high consistency.

The S&P 500 is expected to rise for 8 consecutive months, marking the longest streak since 2018;
Goldman's stock sentiment indicator shows—
retail, institutional, and overseas investors' stock positions have surged to the highest level in the past year, and it is the first time since December 2020 that it has entered the 'overextension zone'.
Looking at leverage:
Hedge funds' total leverage + net leverage are both >90%, regardless of the cycle used for measurement, which is historically high, indicating in one sentence:

👉
All possible leverage has been utilized.
Bank of America's global fund manager survey is even more exaggerated:
Investor sentiment has reached its highest level since July 2021,
and cash positions are at a historical low of only 3.3%—
nearly out of bullets.

Meanwhile, Wall Street investment banks are collectively bullish on the U.S. stock market in 2026, with almost no opposing voices;
the fear-greed index has returned to 56 (greed zone).

📌
What does this mean?
This does not necessarily indicate an immediate peak,
but it implies:

Expectations are fully exhausted
Risk compensation is decreasing
Once an 'unexpected' event occurs, the impact will be amplified
Moreover, it is worth noting:

👉
BTC has already started to decouple from the U.S. stock market.

When the internal differentiation of risk assets begins,
it is often not the starting point of a new round of consistent upward movement,
but rather a precursor to a shift in rhythm.
So the question is not:

Should we continue to be bullish?

But rather:

👉
When everyone is optimistic, do you have an exit strategy for your positions?
The truly dangerous phase of the market
has never been panic,
but rather when consensus, crowding, full positions, and leverage occur.

Optimism is fine,
but do not be blind;
Participation is okay,
but keep some backup.

📉 Yesterday's Market Review

BTC

Yesterday saw another high volatility trend, with obvious back-and-forth movements in the short term.

There has not been any substantial improvement on the fundamental level, and the volume has not increased during the pullback.

Currently, the bearish structure still dominates, but it is unwise to blindly chase shorts; we need to wait for a technical rebound.

On the daily chart, we should focus on whether there is a marginal change in trading volume.

The weekly trend is still in a descending channel, mainly waiting for stabilization.

ETH

The trend is highly synchronized with BTC, and after facing resistance at the 3050 level again, it quickly pulled back.

During the downward process, the momentum has not significantly strengthened, and the bearish advantage has not further expanded.

On the daily chart, we should pay attention to whether there are signs of increased volume; in the short term, it still leans towards consolidation.

Structurally, it is still dominated by bears, but there is a possibility of a rebound for repair.

Altcoin Market

Following the mainstream coins into a consolidation phase, overall liquidity remains weak.

Before sentiment and funds recover, aggressive participation is not advisable.

Alpha activity points threshold continues to rise, and score brushing operations have been temporarily halted.

We will consider restarting only after rules or cost-effectiveness improve.

📊 Intraday Market Analysis

BTC

1H / 4H: Operating below a healthy range, with insufficient short-term momentum.

Daily: The structure has not yet been repaired.

Intraday Focus: Pay attention to whether changes in trading volume are coordinated.

Support below: 86,500 – 88,000

Resistance above: 88,000 – 89,500

ETH

1H / 4H: Also below the healthy range.

Daily: The trend is still weak.

Intraday Focus: Whether the volume increases will determine the strength of the rebound.

Support below: 2,900 – 2,950

Resistance above: 3,000 – 3,050

🔎 Operation Thought Prompt

Currently more suitable for watching volume, trading within a range, and not chasing trends.

Before the rebound shows increased volume, it should not be considered a trend reversal.

Patiently wait for structural and liquidity improvements.

📊 Intraday Market Observation

BTC

Cycle Status:

1H / 4H: Operating below the healthy range

Daily: Still not back to the healthy range, trend is weak but not out of control

Intraday Expectation: Mainly consolidating at high levels, waiting for a directional choice

Key Support: 87,000 – 88,000

Upper Pressure: 89,500 – 90,000

Short-term should be treated with a range mindset; it is not advisable to chase prices before an effective breakout

ETH

Cycle Status:

1H / 4H: Operating below the healthy range

Daily: Structure has not yet recovered, weak fluctuations

Intraday Expectation: Probability of maintaining range fluctuations is high

Key Support: 2,850 – 2,900

Upper Resistance: 2,970 – 3,020

More suitable for high selling and low buying within the range, waiting for volume and structural recovery signals

Summary

The large cycle is not damaged, but short-term momentum is insufficient

Intraday focus on controlling positions and waiting for confirmations

True direction requires waiting for confirmation after a breakout of the range

🔥 SOL On-chain Hotspot Tracking｜12.25

Current SOL ecosystem short-term funds still prefer low market cap narrative Meme / Tool concepts, the following are the three targets with higher attention today:

1️⃣ $BEPE

PEPE holding a child smelling a musty odor

Characteristics: Classic Meme recreation, leaning towards pure emotional speculation

CA: FTdkGcfFUDcXbqRQL3YeLYJa3e3Pnaz6kJH1sBsapump

2️⃣ $TUNA

SOL Launchpad concept targeting fish culture

Logic: Niche vertical narrative + launch pad expectations, suitable for early-stage risk-tolerant funds

CA: GfLD9EQn7A1UjopYVJ8aUUjHQhX14dwFf8oBWKW8pump

3️⃣ $Neurosama

AI companion + humanoid consciousness concept

Logic: AI emotional companionship narrative, leaning towards mid-term story imagination space

CA: 5FK2bfAmNDtEG57GgmbodU99XPX47HrmuvT5x3LDpump

$LIGHT This is too harsh, first a wave to let you chase the car, then directly acting without acting, a waterfall, how many people have exploded this time?

Today's recommended cryptocurrency:

$ENA 4 After 4 hours, it has successfully stood above Ma30, and about 0.2 to enter, 0.24 Zhi Ying, small position

Stop loss point 0.19

BTC / ETH Market Analysis

Yesterday's Market Review

BTC

Yesterday, Bitcoin maintained a high level of consolidation, with key resistance in the range of 89,500–90,000.

There has been no significant improvement in the fundamentals, and the overall strategy remains bearish or defensive.
The daily level needs to focus on observing changes in volume; it is still in a consolidation phase. The weekly trend maintains a downward structure, with no clear signs of stabilization yet.

ETH

Ethereum followed the market's fluctuations, with short-term attention on pressure around 3,020–3,050.

In terms of daily structure, the head and shoulders pattern has been completed, and it is currently mainly digesting through fluctuations, with attention needed on whether a directional choice with volume will emerge.

Altcoins

Altcoins are generally following mainstream fluctuations, and market liquidity remains weak, with no significant signs of capital inflow.

Alpha activity point thresholds continue to rise, and the strategy for accumulating points has currently been suspended, waiting for a drop in point requirements before considering a restart.

Today's Market Analysis

BTC

1H / 4H: Back to a healthy range

Daily: Still below the healthy range, mainly focused on range consolidation, with significant breakthrough difficulties.

Support below: 87,000–87,500
Resistance above: 89,500–90,000

ETH

1H / 4H: Back to a healthy range

Daily: Still below the healthy range, similarly focused on fluctuations, waiting for direction confirmation.

Support below: 2,900–2,950
Resistance above: 3,050–3,100

Summary:

The current market is still in the consolidation phase after a rebound, with the trend not yet reversing. The operation focuses on light positions, defense, and patiently waiting for the structure to clarify. $BTC $ETH