Bitcoin is facing clear macroeconomic risks ahead of 2026: President Donald Trump's tariff policy. In 2025, cryptocurrency traders witnessed prices moving in response to tariff-related news as quickly as ETF capital flows.
Several tariff policies are set to be implemented in 2026. Some have already had dates established. Other policies are influenced by diplomacy and court rulings. In any case, these policies can shift investor sentiment from 'risk preference' to 'risk aversion' in just a few hours.
Trump Tariffs, 2025 Coin Changes
The tariff increase in 2025 repeatedly triggered large-scale sell-offs across the cryptocurrency market.
When President Trump announced new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China in early February, Bitcoin fell to around $91,400, the lowest in three weeks. Ethereum dropped about 25% over three days, and many major tokens recorded declines of over 20% in just one day, prompting traders to quickly unwind their positions.
In April, the 'Day of Liberation' tariff shock and the U.S.-China conflict continued. During this period, risk-averse sentiment peaked, leading Bitcoin to briefly fall below $82,000, and cryptocurrency-related stocks also saw accompanying sell-offs.
However, when the White House signaled a temporary halt, the cryptocurrency market rebounded. In May, after the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary tariff truce, Bitcoin rose back above $100,000, and Ethereum also saw significant gains.
Digital asset funds also saw new capital inflows during this easing phase.
The biggest stress test came in October. When Trump announced he was considering a 100% new tariff on Chinese imports, Bitcoin dropped over 16% in a short period. The clearing volume surged, resulting in forced liquidations worth $19 billion on the exchange in just one day. As of December 2025, the market has not yet recovered from this clearing shock.
This tariff imposes a 100% new tariff on all items from China. It will be applied if negotiations do not conclude. Trump announced this plan in October 2025, later delaying it to focus on the end of 2026.
If Trump reactivates this policy, the market will preemptively reflect growth slowdown and persistent inflation. This combination negatively impacts Bitcoin, tightening the financial environment, causing traders to reduce leverage and risk asset prices to decline.
2. Global standard tariff increase
The U.S. president has indicated the possibility of a comprehensive import tariff increase beyond the 10% basic tariff introduced in 2025. Trump campaigned on a higher universal tariff rate, which remains a potential risk for the market.
The increase in standard tariffs is not a one-day issue. It can continuously pressure investors' risk preferences.
For Bitcoin, in such situations, rallies become unstable, buying pressure increases even with shallow declines, and sensitivity to interest rate expectations rises.
3. European digital tax retaliatory tariffs
This is a new tariff on countries imposing similar regulations like digital services taxes on U.S. tech companies. Trump warned in 2025 that he could impose 'significant' tariffs on countries maintaining such taxes.
If the U.S. imposes tariffs on exports to the EU or the UK, the global stock market may reflect downward adjustments. Cryptocurrencies also tend to follow this risk-averse flow.
In 2025, this trend contributed to a rapid decline focused on clearing tariff issues.
4. Possible increase of pharmaceutical tariffs up to 200%
This tariff targets imported brand-name and patented pharmaceuticals, imposing disadvantages on companies that do not manufacture in the U.S. Trump mentioned a very high rate in 2025, presenting it as a means for domestic industry return.
If the tariff rate approaches 200% in 2026, investors may consider it an inflation factor. As inflation concerns grow, the talk of Bitcoin as a 'hedge' follows, but actual trading often flows in the opposite direction. This is because liquidity shrinks, leading to a tendency for risk assets to be sold off first.
5. Expansion of secondary tariffs linked to sanctions
Secondary tariffs punish countries that purchase oil or commodities from U.S. adversaries. This applies even if those countries are not direct targets. Former President Trump introduced this concept in 2025 and applied it publicly.
If former President Trump expands this tool in 2026, more countries may get embroiled in tariff disputes, increasing global uncertainty.
The biggest impact on Bitcoin is volatility. As uncertainty increases, the range of fluctuations widens, forced selling increases, and if liquidity does not improve, recovery speeds slow down.