For many weeks now, I've seen Bitcoin fluctuate almost exclusively within a very narrow range around $87K–$90K. The longer it stays sideways, the more the price structure reflects an accumulation state and compressed volatility, rather than losing momentum.
With my market observation experience, such quiet periods are often the prelude to a stronger rally afterwards.
ETF cash flow is a factor that makes many people feel concerned. Last week, the spot $BTC ETF in the U.S. recorded an outflow of about $780M, bringing the total net withdrawals in December to over $1B.
However, when observing how the price reacts, I do not sense any panic selling pressure. The price remains quite stable, so for me, it is highly likely that this is just a year-end portfolio rebalancing activity rather than a flow of money leaving Bitcoin due to a change in long-term outlook.
On the contrary, the derivatives market shows an increasing level of participation. Open interest rising along with the funding rate indicates that many long positions are being opened, reflecting expectations of an imminent breakout.
From my perspective, this both shows market confidence and makes the picture more fragile if the price goes against the expectations of the majority.
Given the macroeconomic and geopolitical context still fraught with instability, the fact that Bitcoin is not being heavily sold off while maintaining a high price level makes me feel it is being traded more as a hedge asset rather than just a purely risk-on asset. To me, this is a positive point structurally.
Regarding the scenario, everything is quite clear. If Bitcoin closes decisively above the $91K range, I will consider that a confirmation signal for the potential to extend the upward trend. Conversely, if the price breaks below $87K, the current accumulation structure in my view will deteriorate quite quickly, and the risk of a deeper correction will emerge.
At this moment, I still choose to stay on the sidelines and wait for the market to confirm its direction. In such prolonged price compression areas, based on my experience, patience is often more important than reacting too early.
