A crypto analyst is pushing back on growing chatter that Bitcoin’s “supercycle” is already underway, arguing the biggest breakout is still to come — and explaining exactly what would have to happen for a true supercycle to begin. On December 27, market commentator Killa posted a long-term thesis on X challenging the notion that a mere price surge equals a supercycle. He says a genuine Bitcoin supercycle won’t be defined by short-term outperformance or headline-grabbing rallies, but by a structural, generational rotation of capital away from traditional safe-havens — namely Gold — into BTC as the preferred long-term store of value. Killa’s trigger is specific: Gold must enter a sustained, multi-year downtrend while Bitcoin simultaneously soaks up those flows and breaks into new highs driven by what he calls “absolute scarcity.” In his view, that moment would mark a decisive shift in which older capital remains parked in Gold while a new generation reallocates into Bitcoin as a distinct asset class. To illustrate the thesis he compared Gold’s market structure in 1972 with Bitcoin’s today. Killa showed a chart of Gold consolidating after a strong advance, pulling back into key retracement zones before launching into an extended, multi-year outperformance. He argues Bitcoin’s price action — trending inside a rising channel and recently retreating from the channel’s upper boundary — mirrors that historical setup, suggesting current weakness could be consolidation rather than trend failure. Market-cap math is central to his bullish case. Killa notes that even if Bitcoin reached $200,000, its market capitalization would still be roughly six times smaller than Gold’s. With Gold valued near $31.7 trillion versus Bitcoin’s roughly $1.83 trillion, he sees significant structural upside remaining if BTC captures even a fraction of Gold’s store-of-value role. Killa also warns that new waves of fear are likely to unsettle investors before any major move: his post singles out quantum computing and AI as the latest concerns after earlier cycles of anxiety over regulation, energy use and volatility. He expects those fears to push many participants out of the market just ahead of a potential breakout, describing the current cycle as perhaps the last chance to accumulate BTC below $100,000. Despite the risks, Killa says he will continue buying Bitcoin and is positioning for what he expects to become a decisive upward trend. As with all macro theories, his thesis hinges on large-scale capital rotation and is speculative: it frames a possible path for BTC but is not a guaranteed outcome. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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