Bitcoin price is entering 2026 locked in the same battle between buyers and sellers that kept the price subdued through the end of 2025. The price has been almost flat over the past 30 days, down about 0.6%, indicating that neither side has taken control.
Bitcoin price is still down about 7% year-on-year. This balance of pressure has developed into a stalemate. However, a move of 1% or even 3.5% could determine the direction if the right conditions arise.
Buyer and seller pressures meet in a symmetrical triangle
Bitcoin is trading within a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. This formation shows the market caught between lower highs and higher lows, indicating disagreement between buyers and sellers. Capital inflows do not support a rise.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has pointed downward since December 10. For those unfamiliar, CMF measures how much money flows in or out of an asset. Now the indicator shows a bearish divergence because the BTC price has moved higher between December 18 and December 31, while CMF has formed lower lows. This signals continued outflow and selling pressure.
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This negative capital flow is partially offset by outflows from exchanges.
Net position changes on exchanges show that coins are leaving the exchanges. This often indicates accumulation. On December 19, outflows from the exchanges were approximately 16,563 BTC. By January 1, this had risen to 38,508 BTC.
This is an increase of approximately 132%. This movement of coins from exchanges contributes to price stability and protects the lower trend line of the triangle.
Smart money points to uncertainty
Smart Money Index calculations confirm the lack of direction. The Smart Money Index compares how larger, informed traders position themselves relative to the broader market. The line closely follows the signal line without clear deviation. This indicates that large traders are awaiting a breakout and have not yet bet on any direction.
Until a breakout occurs, the triangle remains neutral.
This aligns with what the CMF and exchange flow data show. Outflows signal pressure. Withdrawals from exchanges signal support level. Together, these balance each other and keep the BTC price steady. Even the most informed traders are uncertain about who will win the battle.
Heat map and Bitcoin price levels reveal the trigger window
Cost basis heatmap highlights clusters where many buyers last bought. These clusters often function as support or resistance. The nearest resistance zone is around $88,082 to $88,459, where approximately 200,035 BTC is located.
Bitcoin is trading near $87,480. A daily close approximately 1% higher will lift the price above this zone. It could be the first bullish signal and determine the breakout of the upper triangle. On the BTC price chart, the level corresponding to this cluster is $88,300, which must be broken first.
Nedside levels appear stronger (harder to break) in the short term. The nearest support level for high cost bases is at $84,449 to $84,845, where approximately 396,645 BTC rests.
On the price chart, the nearest level to this cost base support level is at $84,430. The Bitcoin price must fall approximately 3.5% to test this area. Thus, bearish confirmation lies lower and requires more movement to be confirmed.
The chart and heat map correspond. If Bitcoin breaks $88,300, it is the first bullish signal. A clear daily close above this level shifts the focus to $89,500 and then $90,690. If $84,430 is lost, the entire setup flips downward, signaling that sellers have won the battle.