Weekly Market Analysis in the Crypto Space (01.04)

Summary:

1. Focus on the CXO sector next week

2. Discuss a few commodities we didn't cover last time (the expectation of copper's decline in 2026 and the expectation of nickel's rise)

3. In the medium to long term, the expectation of the renminbi's appreciation and the expectation of the US dollar and Japanese yen's depreciation

4. The correct practical methods for long-term trend trading

5. For those who believe there is one last drop, how should they operate? Should they go long on a pullback or short at the current price?

In terms of operations:

1. Holding a mid-term long position in $BTC , take profit at 98300;

2. Holding a mid-term long position in $ETH , take profit at 3444;

3. Holding a mid-term long position in $SOL , take profit at 151;

4. Gradually placing long orders for Bitcoin at 85555, 80000, 78500;

5. Gradually placing long orders for Ethereum at 2900, 2600, 2550;

6. Gradually placing long orders for SOL at 119.9, 115, 112.

From a structural perspective, the weekly downtrend that started from 126000 has already been completed. The phase change point time I provided in the pinned lazy person's timetable on the homepage is in late December, which was my conclusion given last October. Everyone knows that I have made over 30000 points on my long positions, with a complete real-time record. That’s definitely more reliable than those who only suggest shorting after prices drop to 80000.

Even if it has now risen to 91300, it is no longer suitable to chase long, but I still do not recommend shorting at the current price, as there is still a probability of a potential short squeeze on Monday. I want to emphasize again that although it is a bear market, a weekly level upward movement will at least last for 2 months.

Currently, the liquidity around 91000 has been swept away, but the market has not immediately turned downward, indicating bullish sentiment for next week from the perspective of the heat map liquidation chart.

Although USDT.D will inevitably go above 10% this year, it should pull back to 5.6% in the short term to confirm support, indicating a bullish outlook for next week as well.

The long-short ratio is rapidly declining, so the hunt for shorts is not over yet.

In terms of sentiment, the current greed index is only 40, indicating that we have not yet reached a peak.

There will be opportunities for mid-term short positions in late January (98000-87500), but the main tone of operations should still be to go long on pullbacks.