鸡父

Lazy Person's Schedule 2.0 Update

Previously, the expected end of the bull market was in mid to late October, but currently, the likelihood of it ending at the 126000 level in early October is very high.
So let's assume that 126000 is the peak of this bull market to improve the lazy person's schedule.


Around 10.22: Start building long-term short positions
Around 12.22: Close shorts and open longs
Around 2.23: Close longs and add shorts
Around 5.15: Close shorts and open longs
Around 7.15: Close longs and open shorts
Around 9.28: Close shorts and open longs

During the three months from 9.28 to 12.10, the market is likely to bottom out, allowing for high sell-low buy operations.
The biggest bottom is likely to appear in November, at which point spot buying will occur, and gradually allocate to coin-based long positions.


Regarding this bear market, two characteristics are likely to appear:
1. The bottoming time is shortened to about 3 months (the last round was 6 months, the previous round was 4 months).
2. The startup time is delayed; in the past, bear markets saw the lowest point in 12 months, while this round is expected to reach the lowest point in about 13 months (in November 26).

The main reasons for this are:
1. Considering the characteristics of the past three cycles. If the peak in early October 25 is a major peak, then many people will attempt to bottom out in October 26 and use leverage.
If we refer to the trading methods of the leading institutions this season, the likelihood of these individuals being stopped out is relatively high.
2. Once these people are stopped out, everyone will use the previous bear market bottoming time to estimate the startup time of the bull market. To avoid these people getting in, the market is likely to start early.
3. Today's retail investors are different from those in the past; three months of bottoming time is already sufficient, and there is no need to wash out retail investors by bottoming for half a year like last season.

Invitation Code: QWUG67GX

Weekly Market Analysis in Cryptocurrency (12.14)
Summary:
1. The operational logic of precious metals
2. Including the Japanese interest rate hike, significant fluctuations are expected ahead of the quad witching day on the 19th.
3. The bottom is likely not on the 19th, but it is currently uncertain whether it will be a few days earlier or later.
4. The issue of liquidity
5. The short position in the medium term is not highly confident and needs to be hedged for capital preservation.
6. Regardless, next week or the week after, we still need to consider taking long positions.

Operations:
1. Holding short position at $BTC , take profit at 80600
2. Holding short position at $ETH , take profit at 2620
3. Holding short position at $SOL , take profit at 121
4. Placing a long order at 80000 for Bitcoin, buying more at 78500, take profit at 100300
5. Placing a long order at 2600 for Ethereum, buying more at 2550, take profit at 3446
6. Placing a long order at 118 for SOL, buying more at 115, take profit at 153.5

The short position is still in place, but my confidence in this short position is not as strong as the previous two trend positions. Everyone should manage their positions well during the trading process. After the floating profit of the Bitcoin short position exceeds 5000 points, switch to capital preservation.

The worst-case scenario is that the low point of 80600 from last month does not break, followed by a recovery to preserve capital. In that case, not only will the profit from the current short position be missed, but a significant portion of long position profits will also be lost.
However, considering that a weekly downward trend usually lasts for 12 weeks or even longer, I personally lean towards the belief that 80600 is not the bottom.

It is worth mentioning that Ethereum and SOL need to exit synchronously after Bitcoin breaks a new low. Therefore, if Bitcoin hits the take profit while Ethereum and SOL do not, manual take profit and manual long positions are required, along with canceling the pending orders.

Finally, SOL may potentially reach around 102, but this is just a possibility and does not mean it will definitely reach there. So, long positions must be well managed, and additional long positions can be placed around 102. Ethereum can also have some additional long positions placed around 2400, which may not necessarily hit, but if it does, there will definitely be a response.

Last night in the chat room, the wealth password given indicated that silver had its second largest single-day drop in nearly 30 days.
The subsequent rebound to 14700 continues to short.

Laughing mouse, I remember the last time I was sprayed so badly was in May this year when I stopped my short position with a loss of more than 30000u.
The funniest thing is that my partner liked all the comments saying my aesthetic is bad!!!
I don’t believe it today, I want to prove my own aesthetic!! In the comments section, they mentioned Grandma Xiang, Dior, and LV, so I found 6 more bags. I appreciate everyone helping me take a look, thank you!!

Image 1: Both top and bottom are Dior
Image 2: Top LV, bottom Dior
Image 3: Both top and bottom are Chanel

Hello everyone, I'm Chicken Father. I don't know if I have female fans, but if I do, I hope my female friends can help me with a favor. Thank you very much.

Christmas is coming, and taking advantage of Double Twelve, I plan to buy a bag for my partner. But to be honest, the bags I bought for her she has never liked. I remember one time she directly asked me to return it; another time, she even asked me to give that bag to my mom, saying that she might understand my taste in another 30 years...

Yesterday, I took her to miumiu to look at the very popular bowling bag recommended on Xiaohongshu. She told me she didn't like it either, so I really don't know what to do.
I picked a few bags and found corresponding try-on pictures. I hope the ladies can help me choose, I really appreciate it.
Picture 1: All are prada
Picture 2: Both are Balenciaga
Picture 3: Top is GG, bottom is YSL

I hope the bag I choose will be one she likes.

I haven't used the chat room feature for a long time, but I will try to spend 30 minutes every day answering questions.

I promised everyone I would talk about the stop-loss after the short position was established.
1. In fact, taking profits is easier; everyone knows this, it's the low point of November, which is 80600/2620/121. The expected time for taking profits is between 12.19 and 12.22, the reason has already been discussed in the market analysis, so I won't elaborate further.

2. Currently, the situation of the position is that a short position has been established with Ethereum and $SOL , while $BTC has not been established yet (I fainted at the 94666 I placed). There will actually be room for additional investments later, but it is very likely that this medium-term short position will not see much additional investment.

3. The point given earlier, $ETH , was a bit aggressive in the market analysis, so if some of you entered early, you can add some positions around 3390; I also made a small increase at 3390. Everyone should understand me to some extent; I provide the points on Sundays, and you wouldn't know that Ethereum would rebound on Sunday.

4. The stop-loss position is when Bitcoin's daily line firmly stands at 97000, and then Ethereum and SOL will also incur losses. Trend positions have manual stop-losses, not automatic stop-losses, and everyone needs to adapt to this.

Weekly Market Analysis in the Cryptocurrency Circle (12.08)
Summary:
1. What does the weakening of domestic bulk commodities mean?
2. The U.S. interest rate cut and bond purchase plan on the 11th of this month, the options expiration on the 19th, and Japan's interest rate hike.
3. The peak before the 11th, the bottom after the 19th.
4. Where is the bottom for the dollar and the U price?
5. USDT.D, long-short ratio, heat clearing chart, greed index.
6. If you want to short this week, you need to be a bit aggressive with your entry points.

Operations:
1. $BTC short at 94777, take profit at 80600
2. $ETH short at 3240, take profit at 2620
3. $SOL short at 145.5, take profit at 121
4. Bitcoin long at 80000, add at 78500, take profit at 100300
5. Ethereum long at 2600, add at 2550, take profit at 3400
6. SOL long at 121, add at 118, take profit at 163.3
(If a short position can be established, keep the long position; if a long position is established directly before the short position, then cancel the short.)

Last week I hoped to establish a short position, but ultimately it didn't happen. The reason, I believe, is that the drop on Monday was too severe, preventing the subsequent rebound from reaching the expected height.
Regardless, the risk of directly shorting at the current price is still too high, especially since the weekly decline that started from 126000 has been running for 10 weeks, and typically a weekly decline lasts around 12 weeks. Therefore, I do have some requirements for shorting entry points.

Personally, I certainly hope to establish a short position, which would allow for an additional mid-term short. But even if I can't, I don't think it's a problem, because since February 2019, Bitcoin has not shown a monthly four consecutive negative candles for over 6 years. So as long as it remains in a bearish state this month, I believe it is an opportunity to gradually enter spot and long positions since I am strongly bullish for January/February.
Many people might find this counterintuitive, saying that it is a bear market, a bearish trend, and that one should short on the rebound.
However, left-side trading is inherently counterintuitive. Even if December creates a lower low, my primary consideration remains the entry of long positions, while the short positions are optional.

Weekly Market Analysis (11.30)
Summary:
1. From Vanke's debt crisis to opportunities in the real estate market
2. The rebound ends before the interest rate cut (12.11), with the bottom appearing after the options expiry (12.19).
3. NVIDIA and MicroStrategy
4. Let's talk about the A-shares
5. Reasons why the daily level rebound is likely not over
6. Market uncertainty and corresponding operational strategies

Operations:
1. $BTC short at 97333, take profit at 80600
2. $ETH short at 3300, take profit at 2620
3. $SOL short at 153.3, take profit at 121
4. Bitcoin long at 80000, add at 78500, take profit at 100300
5. Ethereum long at 2600, add at 2550, take profit at 3400
6. SOL long at 121, add at 118, take profit at 163.3
(If a short position can be established, keep the long position; if a long position is directly established before the short position, cancel the short position)

As everyone knows, I rarely hold a short position. So since I am in a short position, it indicates that the current market is indeed not very good for entry. Theoretically speaking, the weekly downtrend starting from 126000 has not ended, and the current issue is where the daily uptrend starting from 80600 will end.
Considering the reasons mentioned above, I personally still tend to believe that Bitcoin will continue to push above 97000 next week. If that's the case, it would also allow for additional gains from a medium-term short position.
From a structural perspective, it's 80600~98000, 98000~78500. Then it ends the weekly downtrend starting from 126000.

However, if it goes directly down from 93000, that can also make sense. If that's the case, then the weekly downtrend starting from 126000 would equate to 9 daily level structures.
From a structural perspective, it's 80600~93000, 93000~79000, 79000~90000, 90000~77000.

I personally lean more towards the former, as combined with the key nodes of major events, there should only be one 4H level upward and one daily level downward, and there shouldn't be three daily level structures emerging.

Most of the long positions have just exited, leaving only a small, insignificant portion in the holding.
My brother and I share the same view @Old九歌 , regardless of whether there will be pressure and adjustments in the short term over the next two days, the probability of an upward trend is likely to continue into next week, with the endpoint of this daily-level rebound likely around the 96-98 range.
So although my long positions have basically been completed, I won't rush to go short, but will wait for a higher position.

The weekly drop that started from 126000 should not have ended, in other words, there should still be opportunities to build medium-term short positions next week. Assuming a drop from 97000 to 80600, the profit would be considerable.

The major bottom should still be around December 20, referencing the significant options expirations on October 17 and November 22. There is also a large options expiration on December 19. October 17 and November 21 respectively mark the bottoms of two daily-level declines, so the weekly bottom should be around December 20.

Some say my lazy schedule is cryptic, but it actually has key time points as a reference basis.

$SOL is ready to take profits at any time, $ETH and $BTC probably need to hold on a bit longer.
Pretty good, it seems I won't have to eat shit anymore.

It's been a long time since we talked about futures.

1. I have recommended natural gas several times this year, and each time the price was below 3.2. Although the lowest price of natural gas reached 2.7, it is now already 4.7. For those who are trading long-term futures, it's just a matter of earning more or less; it's impossible to incur losses.
From the perspective of the theory of trading, the current weekly-level upward trend still aims to reach a position of 6+, but the expected arrival time will be later than initially estimated (originally expected by the end of the year, it now seems to be delayed by 2 months).

2. Lithium carbonate is expected to rebound next week, shorting in batches at 94000-98000.

3. On Monday, go long on silicon iron at 603.

Weekly Market Analysis of Cryptocurrency (11.21)
Summary:
1. The bubble in the U.S. stock market is starting to burst.
2. A rebound can still be expected next week.
3. Issues regarding macro liquidity.
4. I closed most of my short positions today during the spike and began to add to my long positions.
5. Excessive consumption of sell orders.
6. I still believe the bottom will be in December, but in the short term (at least next week) a rebound is anticipated.

Operations:
1. Holding long position for $SOL , take profit at 124.5
2. Long position for $BTC has been increased at 82500, take profit at 93333
3. Long position for $ETH has been increased at 2680, take profit at 3100
4. Placing a long order for SOL at 124.6, take profit at 143.3

Excluding SOL, my other short positions have collectively made over 120,000 USD in profit. If I close SOL at the current price of 126, my profit from this trend will have exceeded 135,000 USD. Among these, just the Bitcoin single currency has already yielded a profit of 88,000 USD.
However, I also recognize potential misjudgments. For instance, I mentioned in last week's analysis: "94000-97000 will be a phase low. Although I don’t plan to close my long-term short positions, it's reasonable to go long around that range in late November." This statement now appears to be incorrect, as my short-term long positions have only achieved take profit with SOL, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are still held until now. My misjudgment has left my average price after adding positions still high at 89000. I originally thought a rebound would occur this week, but it seems it will need to wait until next week.
Therefore, I suggest everyone try to develop their own trading habits and styles. Everyone actually has their own most suitable trading strategies; for me, I can hold onto positions and am willing to accept wider stop losses, so long positions are the most suitable for me. During the execution of long positions, I will also engage in some hedging trades with small positions when there are significant floating profits. My approach is essentially "always profitable", but such a trading style may not be suitable for the majority, and I am aware of that.

Finally, since my long positions have been closed, and I currently have no plans for intermediate long positions, I will be making some swing trades in the next 2-3 weeks. As for intermediate long positions, I still prefer to set them up in December.

Due to $BTC having fallen below the 90000 level, and $ETH also falling below the 3000 level, I have no choice but to adjust the profit-taking expectations for my short positions.

For the short position in Bitcoin, the profit-taking target has been adjusted to 97333.
For the short position in Ethereum, the profit-taking target has been adjusted to 3188.
For the short position of $SOL , the profit-taking target has been adjusted to 141.5.

Although I still have a lot of confidence that these short positions can take profit, even so, this cannot be called a "successful trade" anymore. This is because the risk-reward ratio has become very inappropriate.
In fact, even during the weekend, I still believe that the range of 94000-97000 is a temporary bottom area; even if it falls further, it won't drop much. Currently, the speed and depth of the decline have exceeded my previous expectations.

When I initially set up the long-term short positions, I provided a phased profit-taking target of 82500. At that time, many people scoffed at it, but now, people are starting to look towards the 7xxx range.

I still believe that we should not panic excessively. I think the worst trading strategy right now is: to go short after breaking a certain level and to go long after stabilizing at a certain level. The latter is likely false because the stabilization signal in a bear market is very likely to be fake, while the former is irrational to chase shorts at the current position.
I can also say that everyone who chased shorts yesterday made a profit, but such a trading strategy is still wrong.

From the perspective of wave theory, we can no longer expect a daily level rebound to occur because the decline from 107400-89000 is not diverging from the decline from 116300-98888. However, there should still be a 4h level rebound, which is relatively certain.

All my long-term short positions have not yet been reduced, and I am very confident that these orders can hit my profit-taking level, even taking profits early. But regardless of whether I take profits early or not, I will establish a medium-term long position at my profit-taking level.

$BTC The long position has already gained over 20,000 points.
Of course, at the same time, the short-term long position with an average price of 96,700 is still being held.

Regarding the handling of the short-term long position, some friends asked me where to add more positions later and whether there are any stop-loss points? I did not mention these in my analysis, so I will summarize them here.

1. Since my short position is larger than my long position, there is no need to set a stop-loss for the long position.
2. Similarly, I will not further increase the short-term long position.
3. The key to handling the short-term long position is whether it falls to the 80s this week. If it does, adjust the take-profit target to 97,000 and exit at break-even. If not, continue to hold the position until late this month.
4. Currently, I do not plan to adjust the take-profit target, whether for the short-term long or long-term short.

Weekly Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market (11.15)
Summary:
1. The risk of a market crash in U.S. stocks next year is higher than during the internet bubble of 2000.
2. The probability of not lowering interest rates in December.
3. Reasons for the decline of Bitcoin.
4. The excessive consumption of sell orders in U.S. stocks and Bitcoin.
5. Sentiment, long-short ratio, usdt.d, indicators.
6. The closing line in November should be above 99000.



Operations:
1. Holding a long position for $BTC , expected to hold until late December, take-profit target 82500.
2. Holding a long position for $ETH , expected to hold until late December, take-profit 2333.
3. Holding a long position for $SOL , expected to hold until late December, take-profit 81.
4. Holding a short-term long position for Bitcoin, take-profit target 103333.
5. Holding a short-term long position for ETH, take-profit target 3444.
6. Holding a short-term long position for SOL, take-profit target 161.6.
(If the short-term long position does not hit the take-profit level, it will definitely be realized by November 28 at the latest.)

I placed orders to buy Bitcoin and SOL on November 14, but did not manage to buy ETH. I manually entered a short-term long position for ETH on November 15, and the holding price should be around 3140.
If I take profit early on these three short-term long positions, I will inform everyone in the square, so don’t worry.
This includes long positions; if I plan to reduce positions or take profit early, I will also inform everyone in the square.

All my operations are basically conducted according to my own analysis and posts. My analysis is not only for you to see, but more for myself, and can be regarded as my trading diary/week diary.
Of course, there may be slight differences in point levels, but they won’t be too significant. I will update my order levels every Monday morning at 8 a.m., but my analysis is usually posted on weekends, so there may be slight discrepancies in levels.

Overall, the range of 94600~97400 is what I consider to be the stage low in November. The corresponding positions are the monthly ema15 and weekly ema60. It is reasonable to make long trades around this range before November 28 (but I do not plan to close long positions). I do not rule out the possibility of a re-test on Monday, breaking Friday's low, but even so, this range still represents a “stage” bottom area.

I just took on 2 long positions, and I will share my current holdings.
First, I haven't closed my long-term short position (the margin decreased because the price dropped. Anyone who has done long-term short positions knows that if the margin was 10000u when building the position, and then the price was halved, even if you don't reduce your position, your margin will only be 5000u left).
I just took on Bitcoin and $SOL .
I didn't get $ETH ; I was hanging at 3050, and if I can't get it, then forget it.

Let me first explain the logic of my operations.
1. Why not close the long-term short position? I mentioned before, after you close it, how do you operate next? A bear market lasts 12-13 months, and it won't bottom out until October-November 2026. I built my position in October this year; why rush to close it? If you close your long-term short position now, at what level do you plan to re-enter, with what size position? Or if you were in 2022, buying long at a price of $BTC for 20000, would you close at 25000? After closing, where will you re-enter? It's the same logic.

2. The logic for short-term long positions is that I really don't believe that in November it can drop to over 80,000 in one go, a drop of 40,000 points in a month? Then Bitcoin could go to zero next year, right? Even if we take a step back, if Bitcoin really drops to over 80000, big coins at over 90000 can still break even. I can't possibly have a long position at this level that can't break even.

Then there's the question of at what position to hold. Personally, I hold short-term long positions for at least 72 hours. Theoretically, I think it should go to 107000 again, but I don't dare take it that far; I will close around 103000-105000.

Weekly Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market (11.07)
Summary:
1. Finally, let's talk about accessories; we won't discuss it anymore.
2. Challenging employment and depleted liquidity
3. The US government shutdown is nearing its end
4. Risks of a sell-off in US stocks
5. Current phase
6. One more jab before the US government shutdown ends?
7. Two possibilities for 98888 and corresponding strategies.

Operations:
1. Holding long position for $BTC , expected to hold until late December, take-profit target 82500.
2. Holding long position for $ETH , expected to hold until late December, take-profit target 2333.
3. Holding long position for $SOL , expected to hold until late December, take-profit target 81.
4. Short-term long position for Bitcoin at 96372, take-profit target 103900.
5. Short-term long position for ETH at 3040, take-profit target 3444.
6. Short-term long position for SOL at 137.3, take-profit target 162.5.

Normally, there wouldn't be an analysis today, but due to a small probability, extreme market conditions may occur late tonight or around 9 AM tomorrow, so the analysis is released early on Friday.

Overall, I will still hold the long positions until late December; I'll explain the specific reasons later.

For the short-term long positions, although they are short-term, I will hold them for at least 72 hours, preferably until after the US government shutdown ends.

After the US government shutdown ends, there will at least be two consecutive bullish days. This rebound won't be small, with the minimum and maximum points expected to range between 7000 and 10000 points.

Although I still believe the market will reach around 82500 in late December, this won't happen overnight. Before late November, it's highly likely that 90,000 will be a temporary low point.

Then someone asked me if they should close their short position around 97000; I suggest not to close it. There are two reasons for this.
1. The funding rate is mostly positive, and even from the perspective of making money on funding fees, one should hold onto the short position.
2. If you close your short at 97000, where will you re-enter? What position size will you take? How will you manage your stop-loss? If you short at 104000 and it rises to 108000, what will you do? If you place a short at 108000 and it doesn't go down, what will you do? If you place orders in batches and it drops to 104000, won't your position be underfilled? The bear market is still relatively early; don't rush to close your short.
So my suggestion is to replace closing the short with opening a long.

Just 7 days, congratulations.
In 26 years, more funds will be transferred from the cryptocurrency circle to jewelry.
The long-term short positions in the cryptocurrency circle are still held, and I will speak after closing the positions.