Two critical events in the U.S. will occur in sequence, with the potential to redefine expectations about economic growth, recession risk, and the trajectory of interest rates.

1. Supreme Court Decision on Tariffs (Friday)

Time: 10:00 am ET (12:00 pm Brasília time)

The Supreme Court will decide on the legality of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Currently, the market prices in a 77% probability that the tariffs will be declared illegal.

  • The Financial Impact: An unfavorable decision could force the U.S. government to refund part of the over $600 billion already collected.

  • The Legal Alternative: Although the Executive branch has other mechanisms to impose tariffs, they are considerably slower, more limited, and unpredictable.

  • Sentiment Risk: As the market currently views tariffs as a supportive factor, a judicial defeat could trigger a sell-off, negatively impacting even the cryptocurrency sector.

2. Employment Report (Payroll/Unemployment) (Friday)

Time: 8:30 am ET (10:30 am Brasília time)

The market expects an unemployment rate of 4.5% (slight decline from the previous 4.6%). The outcome will create a dilemma for investors:

  • Unemployment above expectations: Strengthens the case for an imminent recession.

  • Unemployment below expectations: Eases recession fears, but drastically reduces the chances of a rate cut. Currently, the probability of a cut in January is only 11%; strong employment data could eliminate this expectation.

Scenario Summary

Markets face a "lose-lose" situation in the short term:

  • Weak data: Increase recession fears.

  • Strong data: Signal higher interest rates for longer.

The combination of these two events makes the next 24 hours a period of high risk and sensitivity for global assets.