The question is: cheap compared to what? All I know is:
🔹 It's not emotionally cheap for those who bought at the top
🔹 It's not historically expensive, based on on-chain metrics
🔹 It's being ignored by the public, which rarely coincides with market tops
🔹 It's in a fear zone, where rational decisions are harder — but more rewarding
This is the question that always reappears when the market enters a period of decline, consolidation, and fear. To answer it, you can't just look at the price. You need to observe public interest, sentiment, on-chain metrics, and liquidity. And my indicators tell an interesting story:
📉 Global public interest: silence often precedes movement
On Google Trends, searches for 'bitcoin' are far from the historical peaks seen in 2017 and 2021.
This means something important:
There is no euphoria
There is no widespread FOMO
The average public is disinterested
Historically, peaks occur with excessive attention, not with forgetting. When Bitcoin 'disappears' from conversations, the market is usually closer to accumulation than distribution.
😨 Fear dominates sentiment
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is around 27, in the clear fear zone.
This indicator does not measure price — it measures emotion.
And emotion tends to be cyclical:
Extreme fear → forced selling
Neutrality → consolidation
Greed → peak
Whenever the index remains low for an extended period, the market tends to overprice risk, creating asymmetry for those thinking in the medium to long term.
📊 MVRV Z-Score: far from the euphoria zone
The MVRV Z-Score, one of the most respected on-chain metrics, compares market value with realized value (average price paid by investors).
What the chart shows:
Bitcoin below the red zone (historical euphoria)
Very distant from the levels seen at major peaks
In a region that, in the past, was more associated with accumulation or mid-cycle
This doesn't guarantee a bottom, but indicates the market isn't expensive from a historical perspective.
💧 Liquidity and liquidations: where the market wants to go
The Binance liquidation heat map reveals something classic:
Large concentration of liquidity above the current price
Recent movements clearing leveraged positions
Market moving 'sideways down', sucking stops
This behavior typically occurs when larger players accumulate, while retail exits out of fear or impatience.
The price isn't falling because it 'isn't worth anything,' but because liquidity needs to be collected.
⚠️ Final consideration
For me, the most important takeaway is that it's not expensive. Because Bitcoin never seems cheap when sentiment is negative.
And it never seems expensive when everyone believes 'this time is different'.
Maybe the right question isn't 'Is Bitcoin cheap?',
but rather:
👉 Who still has patience when the market loses momentum?
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.