The beginning of 2026 turned out to be a time of paradoxes and resolute, sometimes bordering on adventurism, maneuvers for the American economy. While stock indices are storming historic highs, the real sector and labor market are frozen in strange anticipation, and the White House is shifting toward a model of direct state management of key markets.
Stock market: A party during quiet times
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed the first full week of January at record highs. On the surface, investors are celebrating, but upon closer inspection, this is more of a 'rally of hope'. The main drivers were chipmakers (Intel jumped 10.8%, Broadcom rose 4.4%), fueled by endless optimism around AI.
However, the market has become extremely selective: while the defense sector grows on news of the massive budget, IT giants like Salesforce fall out of favor at the slightest doubt about the return on their AI infrastructure investments.
Labor market: 'Holding on' to jobs
The December jobs report brought mixed numbers: only 50,000 jobs created against a forecast of 73,000. Yet unemployment dropped to 4.4%. We are witnessing the phenomenon of 'low-hiring, low-firing' (few hires, few layoffs). Economists call this 'job hugging': companies are hesitant to hire new workers due to uncertainty and tariffs, but also reluctant to fire existing ones, remembering the labor shortage of the past.
The labor market is in limbo. This removes any strong reason for the Fed to sharply cut rates in January, cooling the enthusiasm of those who want cheap money.
Mortgage assault: $200 billion on the barrel
President Trump solved the problem of expensive housing with a single stroke of the pen, ordering Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. The goal: forcibly lower loan rates, which had stalled at 6.16%.
The housing market reacted instantly: Lennar and D.R. Horton shares jumped nearly 8-9%. However, experts warn of a 'shock of competition': if rates fall but home supply doesn't increase, housing prices will simply soar even higher, wiping out all benefits for buyers. Moreover, using reserves from these agencies increases risks for taxpayers in the event of a new crisis.
Trade: The golden mirage and the tariff wall
U.S. trade deficit narrowed to its lowest level since 2009 — $29.4 billion. Victory? Not quite. Nearly 90% of this 'success' was driven by a surge in gold exports (investors fleeing to safe-haven assets) and a collapse in pharmaceutical imports. Companies had overstocked drug inventories in the spring to beat the 'Liberation Day' tariff deadline, and now they’ve simply stopped buying abroad.
Over this entire structure looms the shadow of the Supreme Court: the case Learning Resources v. Trump must decide whether the president lawfully used the 1977 IEEPA law to impose tariffs up to 145%. If the tariffs are deemed illegal, the government would have to refund importers around $150 billion, creating a massive hole in the budget.
Geopolitics: Oil, Maduro, and icy ambitions
The U.S. special forces' capture of Nicolas Maduro at the beginning of January marked the climax of Trump's new 'doctrine' in the Western Hemisphere. The goal is clear: control over the world's largest oil reserves and the removal of Chinese and Russian companies. The president has already stated that American companies will spend billions repairing Venezuela's infrastructure, and the U.S. will 'govern the country' until they deem it appropriate to hand power over.
Meanwhile, Washington is intensifying pressure on Greenland. The White House openly calls the island's purchase a 'national security priority' and does not rule out a military scenario. The island is needed for deploying the 'Golden Dome' missile defense system and controlling Arctic resources.
Energy and AI: Meta's nuclear renaissance
While politicians divide territory, tech giants divide energy. Meta (formerly Facebook) has signed contracts for 6.6 GW of nuclear power by 2035. AI superclusters require so much electricity that conventional grids can't handle it. Deals with Bill Gates' TerraPower and Sam Altman's Oklo are turning Zuckerberg into one of the largest buyers of peaceful nuclear energy in history.
We get 'Defense Budget' and state capitalism
Trump's proposal to raise the defense budget to a record $1.5 trillion by 2027 (a 66% increase over two years) finally clarifies priorities. Financing this 'budget of big war' is planned through tariff revenues.
America 2026 is a country where the state dictates terms to defense contractors (banning kickbacks until they speed up production) and directly buys mortgages. This may be a new form of state capitalism, where market records coexist with strict geopolitical dictation. This could mean one thing: the old economic rules no longer apply. Welcome to the era of the 'Big Deal' under the cover of the 'Golden Dome'.