Васисуалий Лоханкин
мы все учились понемногу, чему-нибудь и как-нибудь
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The Global Economy on Crutches: A Course Toward Mining and Tariffs
#LearnAndDiscuss
If monk Occam had lived to the 21st century and tried to comprehend the structure of the world economy, he would probably not only have lost his speech — he would have burned his notes and gone into digital hermitage. His famous 'razor', according to which 'entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity', would have dulled on the very first attempt to 'uncover' the structure of the global currency system. We live in a world where entities multiply — currencies, derivatives, schemes, superstructures, central banks, cryptocurrencies, ETFs. Complexity has become the new norm. But the more complex the structure, the higher the chance of its collapse.
If monk Occam had lived to the 21st century and tried to comprehend the structure of the world economy, he would probably not only have lost his speech — he would have burned his notes and gone into digital hermitage. His famous 'razor', according to which 'entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity', would have dulled on the very first attempt to 'uncover' the structure of the global currency system. We live in a world where entities multiply — currencies, derivatives, schemes, superstructures, central banks, cryptocurrencies, ETFs. Complexity has become the new norm. But the more complex the structure, the higher the chance of its collapse.
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The Federal Reserve Has Again Lowered the Rate
On December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve once again eased monetary policy at its meeting, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50–3.75%. In its official statement, the Federal Reserve indicated that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a 'moderate pace'; however, the pace of job growth has noticeably slowed, unemployment has slightly increased, and inflation has once again been 'somewhat high' (above the target level of 2%). The regulator noted that the shift of risks towards a worsening situation in the labor market compels it to maintain a more accommodative policy. At the same time, the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its commitment to its long-term goals – maximum employment and 2% inflation – and promised to closely monitor incoming data before any additional rate adjustments.
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December Paradoxes of the US Economy
The American economy is once again demonstrating its favorite trick — moving at two speeds simultaneously. This time, services are briskly accelerating, production is stagnating, the labor market is sending alarming signals, and investors are synchronously betting on a December easing of the Fed's policy. And all of this is happening against the backdrop of tariffs, a shutdown, and a correction in the AI sector.
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Why the November 'Beige Book' may concern businesses
If the American economy as of November 2025 were to be described by one status on social media, it would be: 'Everything is complicated'.
The Federal Reserve has published the latest 'Beige Book', and this document looks like a patient's medical chart, where seemingly nothing is critically wrong, but the overall condition is characterized by one word - weakness. Most of the twelve Federal Reserve districts report that economic activity 'has hardly changed'.
The Federal Reserve has published the latest 'Beige Book', and this document looks like a patient's medical chart, where seemingly nothing is critically wrong, but the overall condition is characterized by one word - weakness. Most of the twelve Federal Reserve districts report that economic activity 'has hardly changed'.
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Bubble or Fundamental? What the Federal Reserve Thinks About the AI Economy at the End of 2025
On November 21, 2025, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Philip Jefferson delivered a keynote speech in Cleveland. For participants in financial markets—from stocks to cryptocurrencies—this speech is more important than it seems. The regulator has stopped viewing AI as a "futuristic toy" and has begun to consider its impact on inflation, the labor market, and, most importantly, on the financial stability of the system.
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Analysis of the Current Situation in the US Economy and Markets
The American economy is once again demonstrating the familiar dualism of recent years: statistics confidently show growth, while consumer sentiment is plummeting. Such a gap is already a troubling indicator in itself, but at the end of 2025, it is especially contrasting.
Fresh data from the University of Michigan has cooled investors' optimism: the consumer sentiment index rose only to 51.0 points — a formal increase, but in essence, we remain at historical lows, just a few steps away from the anti-record of June 2022. The index of current conditions has plummeted by 12.8%, setting a new minimum in the entire history of observations. The main reason is a sharp deterioration in personal financial assessments and conditions for major purchases. People feel poorer again, even despite the slowdown in inflation.
Fresh data from the University of Michigan has cooled investors' optimism: the consumer sentiment index rose only to 51.0 points — a formal increase, but in essence, we remain at historical lows, just a few steps away from the anti-record of June 2022. The index of current conditions has plummeted by 12.8%, setting a new minimum in the entire history of observations. The main reason is a sharp deterioration in personal financial assessments and conditions for major purchases. People feel poorer again, even despite the slowdown in inflation.
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When one risk is replaced by another.
The conclusion of the longest shutdown in modern U.S. history has removed one major political risk, but it has not brought the clarity to the markets that many hoped for. Formally, everything looks positive: the government is back to work, federal agencies are resuming data publications, budgets are unfrozen. But in practice, investors have not gained calmness but rather a new wave of caution — and this is due not only to the technical pause in statistics but also to the fact that markets are increasingly living in two parallel economic realities.
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China in October 2025
It has been a while, colleagues, since we focused our optics on China. Shall we take a look?
October showed that the Chinese economy has stopped responding to the usual support measures: official PMI data depicts a picture of continued decline in industry and barely alive services, while the packages of measures, although large in nominal terms, have not yet turned into tangible growth. The manufacturing index dropped to 49.0 — this is not just a number, it is the seventh consecutive month that the factory sector is reducing production and orders, while export positions are falling faster than new markets can cover. At the same time, the NBS composite (indicator of business activity in China's private sector) is holding at the boundary between stagnation and weak growth, which enhances the feeling of 'suspension' — authorities are introducing tools, but the economy remains inert.
October showed that the Chinese economy has stopped responding to the usual support measures: official PMI data depicts a picture of continued decline in industry and barely alive services, while the packages of measures, although large in nominal terms, have not yet turned into tangible growth. The manufacturing index dropped to 49.0 — this is not just a number, it is the seventh consecutive month that the factory sector is reducing production and orders, while export positions are falling faster than new markets can cover. At the same time, the NBS composite (indicator of business activity in China's private sector) is holding at the boundary between stagnation and weak growth, which enhances the feeling of 'suspension' — authorities are introducing tools, but the economy remains inert.
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The Fed lowered the key rate
The Federal Reserve, following the FOMC meeting on October 29, 2025, lowered the target range for federal funds by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%. At first glance, this appears to be a careful easing, but a deep analysis of the statement and context reveals a much richer picture: a combination of cautious policy relief, continuation of the 'combined' approach (rate + balance), and readiness to respond to risks in the dynamics of data.
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USA: October between inflation and market optimism
#CPIWatch
Current economic signals from the USA, colleagues, seem to look contradictory: consumers are losing confidence, but businesses are demonstrating resilience, while markets continue to bet on a reduction in the Fed's rates. As a result, we get a mosaic picture where weak inflation and soft rhetoric from regulators fuel risk appetite, despite ongoing structural threats.
Current economic signals from the USA, colleagues, seem to look contradictory: consumers are losing confidence, but businesses are demonstrating resilience, while markets continue to bet on a reduction in the Fed's rates. As a result, we get a mosaic picture where weak inflation and soft rhetoric from regulators fuel risk appetite, despite ongoing structural threats.
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US Market. Rally amid strong corporate earnings.
American stock indices continued to rise: Dow Jones Industrials added more than 500 points (+1.12%) to ~46,706, S&P 500 grew by 1.07%, Nasdaq — by 1.37%. Investors remain inspired by the successes of companies and optimistic macroeconomic signals. Notably, they highlight the statements of White House advisor Kevin Hassett that the prolonged shutdown is likely to end this week. In addition, the markets are dominated by expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed (another 25 basis points at meetings in November and December) and positive dynamics in trade negotiations between the US and China and other partners.
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Earnings Season vs Global Slowdown
Next week, colleagues, promises to be hot: two powerful forces will collide in the market. On one side — great news from major companies sharing their successes, and on the other — possibly not very joyful news about the global economy slowing down.
Let's see what's happening in the States. There, despite the government being "on vacation" for a few weeks now, the main economic news keeps coming out. The most interesting thing is the inflation report. The overall numbers may rise a bit, but if the core indicator (excluding food and energy) stays the same — that will be a great sign! It will tell us that the Fed can relax for now. But the real show is the earnings season! On stage come: Tesla, Netflix, IBM, Intel, and Coca-Cola. Their results will show how big business is really feeling. But even more important will be their forecasts for the future. They can either calm everyone down or, on the contrary, ignite them, you know what I mean!
Let's see what's happening in the States. There, despite the government being "on vacation" for a few weeks now, the main economic news keeps coming out. The most interesting thing is the inflation report. The overall numbers may rise a bit, but if the core indicator (excluding food and energy) stays the same — that will be a great sign! It will tell us that the Fed can relax for now. But the real show is the earnings season! On stage come: Tesla, Netflix, IBM, Intel, and Coca-Cola. Their results will show how big business is really feeling. But even more important will be their forecasts for the future. They can either calm everyone down or, on the contrary, ignite them, you know what I mean!
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The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet: A Tool, Insurance Policy, and Source of New Questions
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his speech on October 14, 2025, thoroughly analyzed the Central Bank's balance sheet. And it looked not like a boring accounting breakdown, but like a map of the current risks in the financial system. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is at the center of the economic landscape: it is not just a remnant of past measures, but an active tool that is understood and desired to be used.
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Federal Reserve Clarifies Strategy
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson presented key highlights of the updated 'Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy' in Helsinki and assessed the current state of the U.S. economy.
The Federal Reserve confirmed the inflation target of 2% and abandoned the introduction of a numerical employment target, emphasizing that the level is determined by a variety of factors and cannot be fixed in a single indicator. It can be said that the policy framework has retained its fundamental goals but has become more flexible.
The Federal Reserve confirmed the inflation target of 2% and abandoned the introduction of a numerical employment target, emphasizing that the level is determined by a variety of factors and cannot be fixed in a single indicator. It can be said that the policy framework has retained its fundamental goals but has become more flexible.
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US Market: A Pause in Decline Amid 'Right' Inflation.
On Friday, American indices made a noticeable rebound — the Dow gained about 0.65% — after the publication of inflation data (PCE), which generally matched forecasts and gave markets hope for further easing of monetary policy. At the same time, presidential tariff initiatives and deteriorating consumer confidence brought back elements of political risk and real economic vulnerability to the picture, so the celebration on the stock exchange had a distinct tone of caution.
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The Fed's New Strategy? An Attempt at a Critical Analysis of Vice Chair Bowman's Speech
The speeches of the leaders of the Federal Reserve System are closely analyzed by market participants to understand future directions of monetary policy. In this context, the recent speech by Vice Chair of the Fed Michelle Bowman is of particular interest. She outlined arguments for a significant correction of the current course: moving towards greater flexibility, focusing on forecasts, and reducing direct intervention in the markets. For investors and analysts, the key task becomes determining whether this position is a signal of real changes in Fed policy or remains just a personal opinion.
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Remarks by the Fed Chair: Key Points.
In short: Jerome Powell acknowledged that the balance of risks has shifted: risks to employment have risen, inflation has ticked up slightly again (mainly for goods), and therefore last week the Committee decided to shift policy "closer to neutral", lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 4–4.25%. In his remarks, Powell emphasized the two-sided risk: too rapid easing could leave the inflation measure outside the target range, too slow could worsen labor market weakness.
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Fed Turnaround: Analysis of the First Rate Cut in 2025 and Its Consequences
On September 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve System of the USA lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points, establishing a new target range of 4.00% - 4.25%. This was the first easing of monetary policy since December of last year. The decision was made against the backdrop of increasing signs of a slowdown in the labor market while inflation remains above the target level. Let's consider the key drivers of this decision, the current macroeconomic situation, and potential consequences for the markets.
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The American market at its highs: cooling inflation and new growth drivers
U.S. stock indices have again set historical highs. Against the backdrop of slowing inflationary pressure and expectations of soft Fed policy, investors have increased demand for stocks, primarily in the technology sector. Corporate reports, the dynamics of government bond yields, and increased activity in the mortgage market have supported the rally. However, behind this positive picture lies contradictions — weakness in the labor market and signs of cooling demand.
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Weak labor market pushes the Fed to pivot
The American labor market unexpectedly turned out to be weaker than previously thought: revised data showed that from April 2024 to March 2025, the U.S. economy created 911,000 fewer jobs than believed. This is the largest adjustment since the early 2000s. Against the backdrop of such news, Wall Street stood between anxiety and optimism: on one hand - the risks of recession, on the other - hope for a quick reduction in Federal Reserve interest rates.
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