In the tweet posted on December 10, 2025, we calculated that the BTC price would need to drop to $62,000 (see citation) at that time to bring PSIP below 50%. The previous calculation on November 20 showed that the price would need to fall to $59,000 to achieve the same. Yesterday, I recalculated and the result remained $62,000.

The implication is that between November 20 and December 10, a large amount of low-cost holdings were swapped to high-cost positions (profit-taking), raising the overall cost basis. From December 10 to January 12, the volume of low-to-high swaps significantly decreased, and the overall cost basis remained almost unchanged, hence still $62,000.

Looking at the data from the past 10 years, whenever BTC experiences major setbacks, PSIP always drops significantly, but compared to the previous 'bottom', it's getting higher each time. For example, in 2019 it was 40%, during the March 12 black swan event it was 45%, and after the FTX collapse it reached 50%... This indicates that BTC's 'resilience' is growing stronger. Therefore, we have every reason to believe that during the 2026 bottom reconstruction, PSIP is very likely to exceed 50%!

Assuming it's 55%, the calculated BTC price under current conditions would be $72,000; meaning the reasonable range for the future bottom should be between $62,000 and $72,000, or above $72,000;

Coincidentally, in the English-speaking community, a foreign analyst has drawn a 'Bitcoin Power Law Price Model' chart. As time progresses, when BTC's price deviation reverts to the power law lower bound, it exactly overlaps with the price range I calculated.

The methods and perspectives may differ, but this is certainly not a random prediction—it's a dynamic central tendency that time has bestowed upon BTC, combining a 'macro cost anchor' with a time function. Short-term deviations can occur, but in the long run, they are unlikely to be violated.

(To avoid misunderstanding, a clarification is needed: this is not predicting the specific price BTC will drop to in 2026, but rather, if a bottom reconstruction occurs, what would be the reasonable price range?)