Arthur Hayes: Global dollar credit expansion expected to drive Bitcoin growth in 2026

Recently, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a well-known cryptocurrency investor, made a descriptive summary of Bitcoin's performance in 2025 and provided related forecasts for the cryptocurrency market in 2026 in his latest article.

Hayes stated that Bitcoin's price once broke through the historical high of $126,000 in 2025, but compared to the continuously rising gold and Nasdaq index, its annual performance still fell short. The core reason for this downturn was global dollar credit contraction.

Hayes analyzed that due to geopolitical risks, multiple sovereign nations accelerated their gold purchases in 2025, using it as a reserve asset to replace U.S. Treasury bonds, which also supported the surge in gold prices; meanwhile, the U.S. stock market benefited from improved corporate profitability, causing stock prices of some companies to rise.

In contrast, Bitcoin, as a 'marginal asset' highly sensitive to global dollar liquidity, faced greater pressure under the macro backdrop of contraction in fiat credit. This means Bitcoin's price is extremely sensitive to changes in dollar liquidity and has been significantly impacted.

However, according to Hayes, the Federal Reserve is likely to expand the money supply continuously in 2026 through ongoing monetary expansion and Reserve Management Program (RMP) initiatives, expected to inject at least $4 billion in new liquidity into the market monthly, providing support for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the expansion of bank lending and declining mortgage interest rates will create a synergistic effect, jointly driving the re-expansion of dollar credit.

Based on the expectation of improved market liquidity, Hayes believes the key driver for Bitcoin in 2026 will shift. His company has already established a leveraged investment exposure to Bitcoin by holding shares in Strategy and Metaplanet, as betting on the performance of such stocks during bull markets often outperforms Bitcoin itself.

Overall, Hayes believes that although Bitcoin underperformed in 2025, the expansion of dollar credit in 2026 is highly probable. Coupled with Fed balance sheet expansion, increased bank credit disbursement, and declining mortgage interest rates, multiple favorable factors could open a new upward channel for cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.

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