At the end of 25, when I renewed my contract with the Glassnode team, they acknowledged my contributions to the Chinese community over the past year, especially granting me access to the 'proprietary signals' which were originally only available to institutional clients. To be honest, the content here is completely different from what I've seen in the past (too professional), so much so that after all this time, I still haven't fully understood it.
However, there is one indicator that I have observed to be quite effective for capturing the peak range of rebounds, and I want to share it with my friends! — Bitcoin Risk Signal (BRS)
The official explanation of this indicator is only this sentence:
The Bitcoin Risk Signal gauges the amount of risk of a major drawdown in bitcoin price. It is based on a set of proprietary indicators, including bitcoin price data, on-chain data, and a selection of other trading metrics.
In other words, it is 'based on a series of comprehensive data,' but what specific algorithms, logic, and principles? Don't ask me, I don't know either. But the usage is very simple, that is, 'when BRS drops from 100 to 0, there are only 2 possibilities: 1. Bull market start; 2. Rebound reaches a peak'; let's look at a few cases (for those who do not want to see the derivation process, you can jump directly to the last Figure 4 to see the conclusion):
🚀 Case 1, Bull to Bear Period
At this stage, BRS=100 means that the risk of BTC falling in the short term reaches its peak, and a sharp rebound is likely to occur afterward; if there is no signal to remind us, it is difficult to grasp where the rebound is the high point area. When BRS drops from 100 to 0, it clearly gives the answer.
Therefore, from Figure 1, we can see that the 3 rebound high points after entering the bear market cycle in 2018 all occurred after BRS dropped to 0 and maintained for a short period. Simply put, BRS=100 can be used to bet on rebounds, and when it drops from 100 to 0 and maintains for a while, it is the exit timing.
The rebound before entering the bear market in 2022 was the same; in January 2022, BRS rose to 100, fluctuating back and forth until March when BRS dropped to 0, corresponding to the rebound high point. From June to August 2022, BTC rebounded from $18,000 to $24,000, and the signals were also very clear.
🚀 Case 2, Bull Market Starting Period
In the bull market starting phase, when BRS drops from 100 to 0, the next time it returns to 100 corresponds to a complete strong trend in BTC. We have observed similar situations in the bull market cycles from 2023 to 2025, as well as in previous rounds.
So, for us, when using this signal as a trading reference, the first thing to judge is whether the possibility of 'bear to bull' is greater or 'bull to bear' during the current bull-bear transition period? On this basis, we can choose the correct perspective among the above two possibilities.
Personally, I believe the probability of the latter is greater. Although you all know I am long-term bullish on BTC; I am optimistic, but I cannot be blindly optimistic. Considering various conditions and data, maintaining rationality and respecting objectivity is my consistent principle.
Now what we see is: 2025.11.21 BRS rises to 100, corresponding to BTC dropping to $82,000; after that, the indicators fluctuated until 2026.1.14 when BRS dropped to 0, corresponding to BTC rebounding to $97,000; therefore, based on the above judgment of the general direction, my view is that this is a 'rebound high point area.'
But if you ask, 'Will it continue to rebound above 100,000?' Of course, this possibility cannot be ruled out, just like mentioned above, when BRS remains at 0 for a period, it is always a rebound high point area. When you choose to gradually exit within this range, relative to the next time BRS rises to 100 when BTC is at a low point, the probability of being wrong is very low.
Of course, if your judgment differs from my general direction and you believe the current direction is 'bear to bull,' then the current drop of BRS to 0 is instead the starting phase of a bull market. You can completely disregard my views and just hold firmly. Everyone has their own understanding, and what I say may not always be correct; just follow your heart.
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The above is only for learning and communication purposes and is not investment advice!